EVA Forecasts Strong Supply and Demand Growth Masking a Tightening U.S. Gas Market in Summer 2026 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. (EVA), along with The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA), released the Summer 2026 Natural Gas Market Outlook, highlighting record production growth, rising exports, and a tightening supply-demand balance across key demand sectors. U.S. dry gas […]
EVA and NGSA Release 2025/26 Winter Natural Gas Market Outlook
EVA Forecasts Strong Winter Gas Market with Record Production and Rising LNG Flows Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) and Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released their Winter 2025–2026 Natural Gas Market Outlook, highlighting record supply and resilient demand across all sectors. U.S. dry gas production is projected to reach a record 108.5 BCFD, up nearly 4 […]
EVA and NGSA Release 2025 Summer Natural Gas Market Outlook
EVA Projects Tightening U.S. Gas Market as Infrastructure Expands and Demand Grows Vienna, VA — Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA), in partnership with the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA), has released its 2025 Summer Natural Gas Market Outlook, forecasting a tighter supply-demand balance driven by infrastructure expansions, growing LNG exports, and structural shifts in domestic energy […]
EVA Delivers Key Insights into U.S. Liquified Natural Gas Exports in Latest Report for the American Petroleum Institute
Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) has released a comprehensive report commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute (API), offering in-depth analysis and critical insights into the dynamic landscape of U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG) exports. The report thoroughly examines the transformations witnessed by the energy industry over the past 15 years, providing essential context to recent fluctuations […]
EVA Accurately Predicts Drop of Coal Inventories in its Monthly Coal Stockpile Report
On Friday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released official statistics of the U.S. electric power sector for the month of August as part of its EIA Form-923 reporting. As reported in EIA’s 923 data, coal inventories at U.S. coal-fired power plants dropped below 90 million tons amid higher coal plant utilization rates and a […]
NGSA and EVA publish Natural Gas Market Outlook for Winter 2021-2022
The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) and Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) released the Natural Gas Market Outlook report for Winter 2021-2022. Highlights include forecasts for gas production, Canadian gas imports, power burns and economical switching, industrial demand, LNG exports, Mexican gas exports, and end-of-winter season storage scenario analysis. U.S. natural gas market became significantly tighter […]
Federal investigation spurs H.B. 6 repeal efforts and potential upside for gas
Ohio H.B. 6 repeal in the works following allegations of bribery Two Ohio House Democrats – Reps. Mike Skindell and Mike O’Brien – announced in a press release on Wednesday, July 22, that they will immediately introduce a bill to repeal House Bill 6, the controversial law passed a year ago that provides ratepayer-funded subsidies […]
California’s Natural Gas Challenge
California finding it difficult to get past natural gas In late 2019, Southern California Edison released “Pathway 2045”, its report on how the utility will meet the state’s aggressive carbon reduction mandates. Just over a year earlier, then-Governor Gavin Jerry Brown (D) signed into law S.B. 100, which accelerated the state’s existing renewable portfolio standard […]
COVID-19 and Mild Weather Combine to Suppress Electricity Demand
COVID-19 and Mild Weather Combine to Suppress Electricity Demand Electricity demand in the continental U.S. since the beginning of the year has been sharply lower than during the same period in 2019, though the response to the ongoing COVID-19 virus pandemic is only partially to blame. Demand across the six largest centrally-dispatched markets – PJM, […]
EVA Expects Coal Burn to Reach 470 Million Tons in 2020
NATIONAL TAKE-AWAYS After a warmer-than-expected winter, natural gas is expected to continue to take market share from coal resources through 2020. EVA’s March 2020 Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook draws the following high-level conclusions: January coal burn dropped by nearly 20 million tons YoY, the largest monthly drop recorded in recent history. Weak electricity […]
2019 LNG Market Roundup
In 2019 EVA’s Quarterly LNG Outlook tracked import and export terminal progress, global supply and demand dynamics, and the resulting price price environment. Our major LNG Market 2019 takeaways are as follows: Gas Glut and Price Slump in LNG Market: Mild weather and oversupply drove both Asia and Europe LNG indices to collapse in 2019. […]
Newly-Introduced Illinois Bill Seeks to Repeal Exelon Nuclear Subsidies
A bipartisan bill (H.B. 3987) filed by two Illinois state representatives on December 9 would effectively repeal a subsidy that Exelon receives via the sale of Zero Emission Credits (ZEC) by granting an exception to customers of electric utilities that serve more than three million retail customers in the state. If the bill is signed […]
Forbes ranks EVA Among Top Energy Consulting firms in 2019
In its annual ranking of management consulting companies, Forbes ranked EVA as one of the leading firms in the Energy and Environment category. The rankings are based on surveys of more than 7,500 partner or executive level consultants and more than 1,000 senior executives who have worked with firms in the consulting industry. EVA is honored […]
2018 Coal Burn at 644 Million Tons, Gas Burn at ~29 BCFD
EVA’s Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook forecasts that 2018 will end with Lower-48 coal burn at 644 million tons. 2017 annual power-sector coal burn was 666 million tons– 22 million tons more than in 2018. Going into September, coal burn was expected to fall by 25 million tons YoY. However, higher cash and […]
Gas Week 47 Record-Withdrawal Adds to Uncertainty in Natural Gas Market Heading into Winter Season
On November 21, EIA announced the first withdrawal for this winter season, a massive -134 BCF net withdrawal for gas week ending 11/15. This brought a massive drop in gas inventories, pushing gas stocks down to 3,113 BCF, 710 BCF lower than the 5-year average. This withdrawal was also much higher than market expectations, which […]
Pipeline Explosion at TCO Likely to Impact Flows and Prices
A pipeline explosion occurred around 4:15 am on June 7, 2018, on TransCanada’s Columbia Gas (TCO) Midstream pipeline. Although the exact location remains unclear, the incident may be related to an explosion on a well pad or line in Marshall County, West Virginia. Shortly after the pipeline explosion, TCO issued a critical notice declaring Force […]
2018 Outlook for Gas Pipeline Capacity in the Northeast
Since the beginning of the shale era, the North American natural gas industry has been keenly focused on the outlook for key pipeline takeaway projects in the Northeast. Recently, several major pipeline projects—most notably, Rover Phase 1 and Leach/Rayne Xpress—have been placed into service and have allowed Northeast gas production to reach record highs. Even […]
Different Shades of Cold: The 2018 Arctic Outbreak vs. the 2014 Polar Vortex
Following a mild start to this winter, cold weather finally arrived in late-December, with a record-breaking freeze sweeping down from Canada and spreading across nearly the entire U.S. east of the Rockies. The blast of cold has had an immediate impact on the market, causing production freeze-offs, surging heating demand and spiking gas and power […]
Rover Phase 1B Seeks Final FERC Approval
On the morning of Dec 4, Energy Transfer Partners submitted a request to FERC to bring Phase 1B of its Rover Pipeline in service by December 14, 2017. Although horizontal directional drilling (HDD) work was halted earlier this year, Phase 1B progress is actually slightly ahead of schedule according to our gas pipeline tracker. Phase […]
SoCal Gas & Power Prices Rising Sharply Heading into December
December gas prices for SoCal Citygate increased dramatically over the last six weeks. On Monday, the December contract settled at $6.21/MMBTU, its highest settle in four years and more than $2/MMBTU higher than its average through 2017. The prospect of higher gas prices has also pushed SP-15 December power prices to record highs. As noted […]
Forget the rig count — efficiency reigns supreme in the Marcellus
Dry gas production in the Marcellus and Utica, which now comprises about 35% of total U.S. L-48 dry gas production, has steadily increased through 2017. The consistent increase in output has coincided with rising rig counts, as well, but total rigs remain well below 2014 peaks. This is a clear sign that producers in the […]
New natural gas pipeline capacity may outpace production gains over next several months
Over 16.4 BCFD of new natural gas pipeline capacity is expected to come into service between now and October 2018. A large chunk of this capacity (7.2 BCFD) aims to provide incremental production takeaway capacity, primarily in the Marcellus/Utica region (see map below). However, EVA’s most recent natural gas production forecast suggests these pipelines may […]
Clean Power Plan Repeal Finally Picks Up Steam
On October 10, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) added another chapter to the story of one of the most contentious environmental regulations, when EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt issued the proposed Clean Power Plan Repeal Rule. This action, almost 200 days after President Trump ordered the EPA in his Executive Order to Promote Energy […]
Rob DiDona’s EIA Presentation on Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition featured on THE COAL HUB
The report “Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition: The current state of play – impact on system dispatch,” first presented by Rob DiDona, leader of EVA’s power group, at the 2017 EIA Energy Conference, recently has been featured on THE COAL HUB. The report highlights the recent history of declining natural gas prices, the importance of […]
Unprecedented Outage Cuts Gas Flows on TETCO Southbound
Around 11pm on Oct 11, Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) declared a force majeure on an unplanned outage that occurred on the gas pipeline just south of its Berne Compressor Station in eastern Ohio. As of mid-morning on Oct 12, TETCO has not yet provided an estimate for when service will be restored. As a result of […]
Iranian Oil: Not Quite Open for Business
With the UN sanctions relief, Iran is seeking to revitalize its oil industry and already has raised oil production to near pre-sanction levels. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) aims to increase production capacity through 2021 to 4.8 MMBD by appealing to global oil majors for capital investments and renovations to their drilling and production […]
New Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook Projects 2017 Coal Generation to Actualize Lower than Expected
EVA has published its July Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook. The report provides insight into how Coal-to-Gas (C2G) competition may evolve given pending changes to fuel pricing and the fundamental structure of the electric power markets. EVA’s Scenario Analysis (SCAN) of modeled assumptions provides high-level insight into a broad range of market-driven outcomes. Highlights […]
EVA launches new offering: Quarterly LNG Outlook
EVA is pleased to announce the launch of a new product offering for our clients, the Quarterly LNG Outlook. EVA believes that to understand the future of North American gas markets, one must understand North American LNG. Yet in order to do so, it is necessary to keep tabs on global dynamics, as well. The Quarterly LNG Outlook is […]
Forbes ranks EVA among top Energy Consulting firms for 2017
In its annual ranking of management consulting companies, Forbes ranked EVA as one of the leading firms focused on Energy Consulting. The rankings are based on surveys of more than 1,000 partner level consultants and more than 1,000 business executives who have worked with the numerous firms included in the survey. EVA received 4 out […]
Structural changes over the past 12 months set to increase power burn by 0.75 – 1.00 BCFD over next year
The advent of low natural gas prices as a result of the shale revolution led to a major structural shift from coal to gas in the power markets. Based on EVA’s proprietary Power Plant Tracking Database, almost 47 GW of gas-fired capacity has been added till date starting 2012. Nearly 13 GW of new gas […]
Quick Trip: Despite increasing pipeline connections, Mexico emerges as the largest importer of U.S. LNG
As of late-April, Sabine Pass has exported more than 100 LNG cargoes to 17 different countries. Regionally, the shipments have been split almost equally between South American, Asian and Middle Eastern markets, fluctuating based on seasonal demand. Yet somewhat unexpectedly, the single largest importer of U.S. LNG is the country that would otherwise seem to […]
OPEC Cuts Production, but Change in Global Supply Muted
At the halfway point in OPEC’s six-month plan to reduce global supplies, the 11 participating OPEC members have reduced production 1.35 million barrels per day (MMBD) from Oct. levels. However, those production cuts have been partially offset by increases elsewhere in the world. This newsletter provides a granular assessment of these offsetting variances and addresses […]
Canadian Gas Imports: A Reversal in Trends
For the seven year period from 2008 to 2014 net Canadian exports to the U.S. were declining (i.e., 3.9 BCFD, or 43%). However, in 2015 and 2016 this trend was reversed. This newsletter examines both the underlying drivers behind this reversal in trends and the intermediate-term outlook for Canadian imports. Regional Assessment: Northeast Declines, While […]
Natural Gas Markets Tighten Setting the Stage for a Price Surge
Arlington, Virginia – EVA has released its monthly forecast of the U.S. natural gas markets with related prices for March. The exceptionally mild 2016/2017 winter masked a relatively narrow supply and demand balance. The correspondingly lower winter prices has restrained—to a degree—upstream investment priming the market for serious tightness heading into the summer. However, the […]
Steady Summer Flows: Global price differentials tighten heading into summer, but not enough to shut-in Sabine Pass
Since beginning operations in February 2016, exports from Sabine Pass LNG on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana have flowed at high utilization rates. More than 100 cargoes have already been shipped from the terminal and besides a 3-week shutdown for scheduled maintenance in November, the project has operated at near full capacity. The high output […]
Equal Demand Reaction? Sagging U.S. gasoline demand may thwart OPEC’s efforts to balance markets
The key premise of OPEC’s plan to balance oil markets was that reduced production, combined with increasing global oil demand, would erode excess supply. While the supply cuts have proceeded largely as planned, global oil demand remains an outstanding question. Most demand expectations for 2017 were already rather modest, ranging around 1.1 MMBD, or 1.1% […]
Unwavering Support: Congress and the new administration will likely seek to expedite U.S. LNG exports
Over the last several years, a general bi-partisan consensus had emerged in support of U.S. LNG exports. The Republican party has strongly advocated for exports and while staunch opposition persists among a small set of Democratic politicians, most followed the Obama administration’s position of offering tepid support—provided projects first complete a comprehensive permitting process. Under […]
EVA Special Report: Second Wave of U.S. LNG Exports to Rival Magnitude of First Wave
Arlington, Virginia – February 14, 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) today published a report analyzing the current status of U.S. LNG exports. The report goes beyond the increasingly well-understood first wave of U.S. LNG projects and evaluates the potential timing and magnitude of a second phase of projects likely to be sanctioned over the next […]
More Than a Headline? A closer look at non-binding HOA offtake contracts
Despite a strong consensus that the global LNG market is headed into a period of considerable oversupply, developers continue seek every opportunity to garner commercial momentum for their proposed LNG projects. Binding offtake contracts remain a necessity for new LNG projects. Given the scale of the investment and length of the construction timeline, proposed projects […]
EVA Special Report: Competition Between Renewables and Natural Gas Escalates
Arlington, Virginia – January 19, 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) today published a report analyzing regional dynamics of near-term renewables and gas power capacity additions. The report focuses on a few critical states (Texas, California, Pennsylvania and New York) and evaluates the increasingly prevalent competition between gas and renewable energy (namely, wind and utility-scale solar […]
Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast
Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast Published December 29, 2016 Arlington, Virginia – December 29, 2016 – EVA Decodes OPEC’s Fuzzy Math and Finds Global Glut to Persist Through 2017. In EVA’s recently released Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast the OPEC plan for balancing global […]
Energy Ventures Analysis’ Leading Natural Gas Market Advisory Service Anticipated Surprise JAN Expiration for Weeks
Arlington, Virginia – January 5, 2017 Headlines flashed across markets last week announcing that natural gas prices had ripped their way to a two-year high as threats of cold-air invasions met an unusually-tight supply/demand balance, completing a 5-day, 20.5% rally into the JAN contract expiry of $3.93. Clearly, this found many market participants surprised, with […]
Betting Big on Spot: Massive tenders from new importers push LNG spot market to new heights
In the past few months, two relatively new LNG buyers—Pakistan and Egypt—issued unprecedented tenders for short-term LNG supply. The deals, though not fully completed, reflect the convergence of two mutually-reinforcing trends: the rapid emergence of new importers and the heavy surplus of LNG set to hit the market in the next few years. In late […]
Canadian Milestone: What the (apparent) success of Woodfibre LNG says about the current LNG market
In early November, Singapore-based Pacific Oil & Gas authorized financing for its 2.1 MMTPA (280 MMCFD) Woodfibre LNG project in Squamish, British Columbia. The announcement appeared to stop short of a full Final Investment Decision (FID), as it remains contingent on receipt of a few local and provincial approvals. While not guaranteed, those approvals are […]
EVA Provides a Structured Assessment of the Dynamic Long-term Global LNG Market
ARLINGTON, Va., Oct. 17, 2016 The global LNG industry is in the midst of a massive transformation. New supply is expected to overwhelm demand and drive down prices to levels not seen in decades. Lower prices could spur new LNG demand, including from dozens of emerging markets that represent every major region in the world. […]
Energy Ventures Analysis’ Daily Natural Gas Advisory Service Uniquely out in Front of Breakout Price Rally
Arlington, Virginia – October 7, 2016 – By employing their proprietary modeling and intelligence of both market fundamentals and price/volume term-structure, EVA has positioned its Daily Natural Gas Advisory clients ahead of one of the largest non-fundamental price moves of the past three years. Through continuous observation of flat price, spreads, volumes, volatilities and how […]
NEW PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENT Gas-Coal Burn Price Sensitivity Forecast Report
DESCRIPTION: The natural gas and coal markets are undergoing significant structural shifts in an era in which both fuels have become increasingly competitive within the electric power sector. What separates the recent history of ‘coal-to-gas’ switching (C2G)—to which many market participants have become accustomed—from today and the future are those structural changes which will make […]
EVA’s August Monthly Natural Gas Price Forecast Released
Arlington, Virginia – September 26, 2016 – EVA has released its monthly forecast of the U.S. natural gas markets with related prices for the month of September. With the Summer now firmly in the past the current focus is on the near term uncertainties that will dominate the outcome of Winter 2016/2017 supply and prices. […]
Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast
Arlington, Virginia – September 26, 2016 – EVA has released its Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast report. Building on last month’s report, market’s main concern is the timeline for a re-balancing of supply and demand in the market. IEA and OPEC are now looking at 2018 which is more in line […]
Michael Schaal to keynote the Platts Pipeline Development and Expansion Conference on September 29 in Houston
Arlington, Virginia – September 14, 2016 – Michael Schaal will speak at the keynote session at the Platts 11th Annual Pipeline Development and Expansion Conference, to be held September 29-30 in Houston. Michael will be kicking off the conference with, “Oil and Natural Gas Pricing Report.” Michael will be providing an overview of the current […]