EVA’s Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook forecasts that 2018 will end with Lower-48 coal burn at 644 million tons. 2017 annual power-sector coal burn was 666 million tons– 22 million tons more than in 2018. Going into September, coal burn was expected to fall by 25 million tons YoY. However, higher cash and […]
Gas Week 47 Record-Withdrawal Adds to Uncertainty in Natural Gas Market Heading into Winter Season
On November 21, EIA announced the first withdrawal for this winter season, a massive -134 BCF net withdrawal for gas week ending 11/15. This brought a massive drop in gas inventories, pushing gas stocks down to 3,113 BCF, 710 BCF lower than the 5-year average. This withdrawal was also much higher than market expectations, which […]
Pipeline Explosion at TCO Likely to Impact Flows and Prices
A pipeline explosion occurred around 4:15 am on June 7, 2018, on TransCanada’s Columbia Gas (TCO) Midstream pipeline. Although the exact location remains unclear, the incident may be related to an explosion on a well pad or line in Marshall County, West Virginia. Shortly after the pipeline explosion, TCO issued a critical notice declaring Force […]
2018 Outlook for Gas Pipeline Capacity in the Northeast
Since the beginning of the shale era, the North American natural gas industry has been keenly focused on the outlook for key pipeline takeaway projects in the Northeast. Recently, several major pipeline projects—most notably, Rover Phase 1 and Leach/Rayne Xpress—have been placed into service and have allowed Northeast gas production to reach record highs. Even […]
Different Shades of Cold: The 2018 Arctic Outbreak vs. the 2014 Polar Vortex
Following a mild start to this winter, cold weather finally arrived in late-December, with a record-breaking freeze sweeping down from Canada and spreading across nearly the entire U.S. east of the Rockies. The blast of cold has had an immediate impact on the market, causing production freeze-offs, surging heating demand and spiking gas and power […]
Rover Phase 1B Seeks Final FERC Approval
On the morning of Dec 4, Energy Transfer Partners submitted a request to FERC to bring Phase 1B of its Rover Pipeline in service by December 14, 2017. Although horizontal directional drilling (HDD) work was halted earlier this year, Phase 1B progress is actually slightly ahead of schedule according to our gas pipeline tracker. Phase […]
SoCal Gas & Power Prices Rising Sharply Heading into December
December gas prices for SoCal Citygate increased dramatically over the last six weeks. On Monday, the December contract settled at $6.21/MMBTU, its highest settle in four years and more than $2/MMBTU higher than its average through 2017. The prospect of higher gas prices has also pushed SP-15 December power prices to record highs. As noted […]
Forget the rig count — efficiency reigns supreme in the Marcellus
Dry gas production in the Marcellus and Utica, which now comprises about 35% of total U.S. L-48 dry gas production, has steadily increased through 2017. The consistent increase in output has coincided with rising rig counts, as well, but total rigs remain well below 2014 peaks. This is a clear sign that producers in the […]
New natural gas pipeline capacity may outpace production gains over next several months
Over 16.4 BCFD of new natural gas pipeline capacity is expected to come into service between now and October 2018. A large chunk of this capacity (7.2 BCFD) aims to provide incremental production takeaway capacity, primarily in the Marcellus/Utica region (see map below). However, EVA’s most recent natural gas production forecast suggests these pipelines may […]
Clean Power Plan Repeal Finally Picks Up Steam
On October 10, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) added another chapter to the story of one of the most contentious environmental regulations, when EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt issued the proposed Clean Power Plan Repeal Rule. This action, almost 200 days after President Trump ordered the EPA in his Executive Order to Promote Energy […]