EVA Forecasts Strong Winter Gas Market with Record Production and Rising LNG Flows
Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) and Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released their Winter 2025–2026 Natural Gas Market Outlook, highlighting record supply and resilient demand across all sectors.
U.S. dry gas production is projected to reach a record 108.5 BCFD, up nearly 4 BCFD year-over-year, with Permian associated gas providing most of the growth. Storage enters the season at approximately 3.9 TCF, slightly above the five-year average, and is expected to exit winter at around 2.1 TCF. While renewables and coal will offset some natural gas use in the power sector, overall fossil-fired generation remains critical for reliability during peak heating months. As a result, EVA expects tighter supply-demand balances this winter than in 2024–2025, with storage withdrawals driven by stronger residential and commercial heating loads and sustained export growth. Henry Hub prices are forecast to average just above $4.00/MMBtu, higher than last winter but still moderate by historical standards.
On the demand side, total U.S. consumption is forecast at 129.6 BCFD, up 4.2 BCFD from last year. Residential and commercial heating demand rises with colder weather, while LNG exports are expected to climb by 3.8 BCFD year over year, reaching 18.3 BCFD this season. U.S.–Mexico pipeline exports are also growing, reaching 6.6 BCFD amid new power generation capacity south of the border. Power burn dips modestly, reflecting the competitiveness of coal and the growth of renewables, but structural gas demand remains strong. Industrial demand softens slightly but remains supported by pro-manufacturing trends.
Data centers are becoming a key driver of electricity and natural gas demand. U.S. data center capacity is projected to increase from ~30 GW in 2024 to over 41 GW by 2027, driven by PJM, ERCOT, and the Southeast. Virginia, Texas, and emerging hubs in Ohio and Kentucky are expected to anchor this growth.
Overall, the outlook underscores the U.S. gas market entering winter with record supply, rising exports, and new demand from both households and digital infrastructure, reinforcing natural gas’s central role in reliability and energy security.
To access the executive summary of the report, please follow the link.
About Energy Ventures Analysis: Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) is a leading provider of consulting and analytical services for the energy industry. With decades of experience, EVA delivers in-depth market analysis, strategic insights, and expert advice to support decision-making in the energy sector.