Yesterday, January 21, ERCOT issued its first Winter Weather Watch for the upcoming winter storm, which is expected to begin affecting the Lone Star State with sleet, ice, and frigid temperatures starting Saturday, January 24, 2026. While such weather events are becoming more frequent in the country, the confluence of record-high load forecasts and a […]
Campbell Power Plant Extension Likely Saved Michigan Ratepayers Millions During first 40 Days under DOE Order
On May 23, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a rare emergency order under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to extend operations of the J.H. Campbell power plant in Michigan through August 21, 2025. The DOE directive required Consumers Energy and MISO to ensure the plant’s availability and to economically dispatch […]
Energy Ventures Analysis Publishes Report on PJM’s 2026/27 Base Residual Auction Results
Vienna, VA – July 25, 2025 — Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) has released its comprehensive report analyzing the results of PJM Interconnection’s 2026/27 Base Residual Auction (BRA), which cleared at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC)-imposed cap of $329.17 per megawatt-day (MW-day) across the entire Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) footprint. This marks a 22% jump […]
One Big Beautiful Bill Signed: What Changed and What’s Next
Executive Summary On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed the Senate-amended One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). While many of the cuts from the House version remained, the final version of OBBBA introduces a more relaxed condition of eligibility for projects seeking to claim the new tech-neutral clean electricity tax credits (45Y and 48E) with […]
Revitalizing U.S. Nuclear: Key Takeaways from May 2025 Executive Orders
On May 23, President Donald Trump signed a series of executive orders designed to significantly enhance the role of nuclear power within the U.S. energy sector. These orders continue the President’s response to the National Energy Emergency he declared upon taking office in January. While there have been various energy-related directives from the White House, […]
The One Big, Beautiful Repeal: How OBBBA Resets Clean Energy Policy
On May 22, 2025, the U.S. House passed the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), a sweeping legislative package that effectively repeals most clean energy provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Additionally, a key amendment that passed with the original OBBBA imposes two immediate eligibility conditions that disqualify the vast majority of clean energy […]
President Trump Signs Executive Orders Addressing Energy Reliability and Coal Industry At-Large
On April 8, President Donald Trump signed three executive orders designed to bolster the U.S. coal industry, support coal-fired electricity generation, and override state-level initiatives perceived as obstructing domestic energy production. While the specific impacts will depend on forthcoming federal agency actions and regulatory follow-through, these orders collectively signal a major federal push to extend […]
Trump Administration’s Wind Freeze: A Challenge for Offshore Wind, But Far from the End
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has triggered a significant shift in U.S. energy policy, with offshore wind facing its biggest challenge yet. A recent executive order (EO), published on January 20, 2025, halting leasing of federal land and waters for wind energy projects, has injected uncertainty into the sector, delaying key projects, discouraging […]
The (Possible) Future of Federal Environmental Regulations during Donald Trump’s Second Term as U.S. President
The 2024 U.S. presidential election concluded with the victory of Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump, signaling anticipated shifts in environmental regulations and energy policies. Expected changes include potential reversals of recent EPA regulations, reallocations of unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and heightened support for domestic […]
The GNR Stay: Markets Respond to the New Regulatory Landscape
The Supreme Court’s decision to stay the Good Neighbor Rule (GNR) on June 27th was a seismic event that reverberated through the energy markets, causing a ripple effect on allowance prices in all U.S. emission markets. This decision, which is yet another twist in the Ozone Transport Rule saga, has thrust stakeholders into a new […]
Intense Heatwave Triggers Surging Electricity Demand in PJM
The Mid-Atlantic region and states along the I-95 corridor experienced an intense heatwave over the past weekend, pushing temperatures to record highs and significantly raising electricity demand. PJM had issued a hot weather advisory for its Mid-Atlantic and Southern regions as 90-plus-degree weather persisted throughout the week of June 17. The advisory was subsequently extended […]
A Look at EPA’s Good Neighbor Plan Ahead of the SCOTUS Ruling
More than a year after EPA’s latest update to EPA’s Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), dubbed the ‘Good Neighbor Plan’ (GNP), was finalized and due to come into effect, a momentous ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) looms large. The ruling in the case of Ohio vs. EPA, expected this June, […]
The New Horizon: Understanding EPA’s 2024 Suite of New Environmental Regulations for Power Plants
On April 25, 2024, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) introduced a comprehensive suite of final environmental regulations significantly affecting the landscape of energy production in the United States. Targeting both new and existing fossil fuel-fired power plants, these environmental regulations – notably the GHG Rule, ELG Rule, and an update to the MATS Rule, […]
Baltimore Bridge Collapse Halts All Exports from the U.S. Second-Largest Coal Port
In the early hours of March 26, 2024, the maritime and energy sectors witnessed a significant disruption when a containership collided with a support pillar of the F.S. Key Bridge in Baltimore, causing a catastrophic collapse. This unforeseen incident has not only severed a vital artery for the city’s transportation network but also immediately halted […]
Navigating the New SEC Climate Regulation : An Overview
In 2022, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) initiated significant changes aimed at enhancing climate-related disclosures for registrants. Fast forward to March 6, 2024, and the SEC has finalized these rules, ushering in a new era of transparency and accountability regarding climate risks and financial impacts. Let’s delve into the key aspects of this regulation […]
EVA Accurately Predicts Drop of Coal Inventories in its Monthly Coal Stockpile Report
On Friday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released official statistics of the U.S. electric power sector for the month of August as part of its EIA Form-923 reporting. As reported in EIA’s 923 data, coal inventories at U.S. coal-fired power plants dropped below 90 million tons amid higher coal plant utilization rates and a […]
Understanding 45Q: The Carbon Capture Tax Credit
With several states and a number of utilities adopting decarbonization goals, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) may find a role in an energy transition as coal and gas plants retrofitted with either technology could continue to operate. What is the 45Q tax credit? 45Q is a performance-based tax […]
Federal investigation spurs H.B. 6 repeal efforts and potential upside for gas
Ohio H.B. 6 repeal in the works following allegations of bribery Two Ohio House Democrats – Reps. Mike Skindell and Mike O’Brien – announced in a press release on Wednesday, July 22, that they will immediately introduce a bill to repeal House Bill 6, the controversial law passed a year ago that provides ratepayer-funded subsidies […]
California’s Natural Gas Challenge
California finding it difficult to get past natural gas In late 2019, Southern California Edison released “Pathway 2045”, its report on how the utility will meet the state’s aggressive carbon reduction mandates. Just over a year earlier, then-Governor Gavin Jerry Brown (D) signed into law S.B. 100, which accelerated the state’s existing renewable portfolio standard […]
Biden’s energy plan touts significant investment in clean technology as key to job growth, security
Former Vice President and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden, Jr. this week released an outline of his wide-ranging clean energy plan that includes $2 trillion of investments in everything from infrastructure and transit to housing and agriculture. Biden says the plan is designed to spur job growth, drive American innovation, and “build a […]
COVID-19 and Mild Weather Combine to Suppress Electricity Demand
COVID-19 and Mild Weather Combine to Suppress Electricity Demand Electricity demand in the continental U.S. since the beginning of the year has been sharply lower than during the same period in 2019, though the response to the ongoing COVID-19 virus pandemic is only partially to blame. Demand across the six largest centrally-dispatched markets – PJM, […]
COVID-19 and Possible Economic Demand Destruction
Let’s talk about the 6-ton elephant in the room, economic demand destruction. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and simultaneous oil price war have joined forces to drive a sector-wide commodity sell-off. As cities and states across the U.S. have begun issuing unprecedented measures to contain the spread of the virus (today, Governor Cuomo of New York […]
EVA Expects Coal Burn to Reach 470 Million Tons in 2020
NATIONAL TAKE-AWAYS After a warmer-than-expected winter, natural gas is expected to continue to take market share from coal resources through 2020. EVA’s March 2020 Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook draws the following high-level conclusions: January coal burn dropped by nearly 20 million tons YoY, the largest monthly drop recorded in recent history. Weak electricity […]
Pain in the Permian: Renewable Edition
Pain in the Permian: Renewable Edition On March 8th, global oil prices fell by the largest amount since the 1991 Gulf War as Saudi Arabia abruptly ended its agreement with Russia to regulate prices through coordinated production cuts. The move sparked fears of a price war and came amid price declines caused by the COVID-19 […]
New York State Gears Up For Critical Fight Over Renewable Siting
On February 21st, 2020, New York Governor Cuomo announced a 30-day budget amendment that would “dramatically speed up the permitting and construction of renewable energy projects.” The Accelerated Renewable Energy Growth and Community Benefit Act at this stage has two main mechanisms. The first is to effectively bypass the burdensome Article 10 Permitting Process by […]
Pennsylvania Governor Pushes to Join RGGI
Pennsylvania makes strides towards joining regional carbon cap-and-trade program On October 3, 2019, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf (D) issued an executive order directing the state’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to develop a proposal to limit power sector carbon emissions consistent with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a multi-state cap-and-trade program intended to reduce […]
Jan-Feb 2020 Liquefied Natural Gas Market Highlights
The January-February 2020 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market saw a lot of gas and not a lot of buying. Here are some of the dynamics we’re watching as the month comes to an end: Prompt Month Spot Price Dynamics The JKM LNG index for March LNG deliveries to Northeast Asia averaged $4.08/MMBTU over the 30 […]
Coal Retrofits the Largest Source of Emission Reductions
Annual U.S. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) emissions from coal-fired plants have sharply declined over the past two decades. Relative to the 2000 levels SO2 and NOx emissions were 88% and 82% lower in 2018, respectively. Total SO2 emissions fell from ~11 million tons in 2000 to ~1.2 million tons in 2018. EVA’s […]
Update: Indiana Governor Signs Bill Preventing Public Utilities From Retiring Coal
Update: H.B. 1414 was signed into law by Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb (R) on March 23rd. The below blog post was EVA’s analysis as of January 27th. A recently proposed Indiana bill would prevent public utilities from retiring, selling, or otherwise altering the operations of any of their electric generating facilities without first obtaining permission […]
New York Carbon Emissions Set to Rise in the Wake of Indian Point Retirement
EVA has modeled the impact of the retirement of Entergy’s Indian Point nuclear plant and found that in the near term, power sector carbon emissions will increase as the lost nuclear generation is replaced with natural gas generation. Further, the retirement will increase the cost to comply with the state’s recently updated Clean Energy Standard […]
2019 LNG Market Roundup
In 2019 EVA’s Quarterly LNG Outlook tracked import and export terminal progress, global supply and demand dynamics, and the resulting price price environment. Our major LNG Market 2019 takeaways are as follows: Gas Glut and Price Slump in LNG Market: Mild weather and oversupply drove both Asia and Europe LNG indices to collapse in 2019. […]
Newly-Introduced Illinois Bill Seeks to Repeal Exelon Nuclear Subsidies
A bipartisan bill (H.B. 3987) filed by two Illinois state representatives on December 9 would effectively repeal a subsidy that Exelon receives via the sale of Zero Emission Credits (ZEC) by granting an exception to customers of electric utilities that serve more than three million retail customers in the state. If the bill is signed […]
Can New York Build Renewables Fast Enough to Comply with Renewable Targets? Not Without Reforms.
During the summer of 2019 New York State passed the nation’s most stringent energy law in the form of the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (“CLCPA”). The law, which EVA analyzed in a recent special report, requires 70% of all electricity sales to be sourced from renewables by 2030, 100% of electricity from carbon-free […]
EVA Performs New York Wind Decommissioning Study
Energy Ventures Analysis was hired this summer to provide the townships impacted by the Canisteo Wind project with an independent estimate for the potential cost of decommissioning the project at the end of its useful life. The full report can be found here ([download id=”72848″]) and EVA’s expert testimony on the matter can be found […]
Special Report: New York’s “Green New Deal”
EVA has published a special report analyzing the power-sector impacts of New York’s “Green New Deal” legislation. An executive summary of the report can be read below. Executive Summary Background on New York’s ” Green New Deal” On July 18th, 2019, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) signed into law the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act […]
Why did ERCOT’s Power Prices Spike in August?
ERCOT August 2019 Price Spikes Background August 13th, as temperatures rose during the day, ERCOT power prices climbed to around $6,500/MWh around 2:00 pm before suddenly jumping to the $9,000/MWh that is enforced by market rules from roughly 3:30 pm to 4:45 pm. Two days later, even though system-wide load was several thousand MWs below […]
EVA and NGSA Release Winter Natural Gas Outlook
EVA worked closely with staff at Natural Gas Supply Association to produce a Winter Natural Gas Outlook for 2019-2020. Top line findings from the NGSA’s Winter Natural Gas Outlook include: U.S. natural gas supply and demand for 2019-2020 winter are both forecasted to experience substantial growth winter-over-winter. Total gas production is expected to grow 3.8 […]
EVA Report Finds the Renewable Fuel Standard Obsolete
| DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT HERE | Several independent merchant refiners (belonging to the Fueling American Jobs Coalition) recently asked Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) to take a fresh look at how the current Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is performing as an energy policy in the current era of ever-increasing U.S. energy independence. The results are […]
Key Takeaways from EPA’s ACE Rule
Yesterday the EPA released the final Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule. The rule was mostly unchanged from the original proposed rule. EVA’s environmental team has drawn the following takeaways for how the ACE rule will impact the industry: The rule will impact all coal-fired electric generating units (EGUs) greater than 25 MW, which were in […]
EVA Forecasts Strong Exports and Industrial Demand to Underpin Record-Setting Gas Demand this Summer
On May 30, 2018, Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released their 2019 Summer Outlook for Natural Gas, which was prepared by Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA). According to EVA’s forecast, remarkable demand growth for the upcoming summer will be matched by record-setting production, resulting in flat price expectations summer-over-summer. Summer 2019 begins with a 1.13 TCF […]
Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook: ERCOT Spotlight
National Summary: Gas burn in February actualizing at a record 27.35 BCFD, nearly 0.6 BCFD higher than in January and 2.4 BCFD higher YoY. Coal burn was relatively flat YoY for February, while hydro generation declined by 13.5% from last year. Exhibit seven demonstrates that gas burn is expected to remain around 27 BCFD through […]
Gas and Coal Burn Sensitivity Outlook: MISO Spotlight
EVA’s latest monthly Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook indicates that annual 2019 coal burn will end up below 600 million tons while gas burn will surpass 2018 levels and end up at nearly 29 BCFD for the year. January gas burn was off to a good start with a 6.2% increase YoY, despite total […]
Commentary on the Gas Week 3/14 Storage Report
This morning EIA announced a 47 BCF withdrawal for gas week ending 3/14. This storage draw brings U.S. total working gas down to 1,143 BCF, with the deficit to the 5-year average narrowing from 569 BCF to 556 BCF. This is the first time we’ve saw below average withdrawal in a month. In this week’s […]
Gas and Coal Burn Sensitivity Outlook: PJM Spotlight
EVA’s monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook shows that December gas burn actualized at 23.9, bringing the annual 2018 gas burn to roughly 29 BCFD—a record high. Coal burn declined YoY, falling to around 637 million tons in 2018. Only four years ago coal burn was above 800 million tons, highlighting how retirements and […]
ERCOT Price Reforms to Curtail Retirements and Incentivize Distributed Generation Investment
Executive Summary In an effort to increase resilience ahead of summer 2019 the Texas Public Utility Commission has approved reforms that will increase prices during high-demand periods in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. The reforms are expected to incentivize generators to defer retirement, while also sending price signals to customers to curtail […]
Massachusetts’ Comprehensive Energy Plan Aspires for an Electric Future
Background The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) published its long-awaited energy plan on December 12th. DOER had been directed by Governor Charlie Baker in a September 2016 executive order to publish a “Comprehensive Energy Plan” (CEP) for the commonwealth. The CEP articulates the state’s high-level strategy to meet its commitment to reduce GHG emissions […]
2018 Coal Burn at 644 Million Tons, Gas Burn at ~29 BCFD
EVA’s Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook forecasts that 2018 will end with Lower-48 coal burn at 644 million tons. 2017 annual power-sector coal burn was 666 million tons– 22 million tons more than in 2018. Going into September, coal burn was expected to fall by 25 million tons YoY. However, higher cash and […]
Gas Week 47 Record-Withdrawal Adds to Uncertainty in Natural Gas Market Heading into Winter Season
On November 21, EIA announced the first withdrawal for this winter season, a massive -134 BCF net withdrawal for gas week ending 11/15. This brought a massive drop in gas inventories, pushing gas stocks down to 3,113 BCF, 710 BCF lower than the 5-year average. This withdrawal was also much higher than market expectations, which […]
EVA’s 2017 Power Plant Performance Report Featured in Most Recent Power Engineering Magazine
EVA’s annual Power Plant Performance Report is featured in the June issue of PennWell’s Power Engineering magazine. The Power Plant Performance Report is based on data and analysis provided by EVA’s analysts. The data is collected from Form EIA 923 “Power Plant Report” and EPA’s Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS). It was another year of […]
Pipeline Explosion at TCO Likely to Impact Flows and Prices
A pipeline explosion occurred around 4:15 am on June 7, 2018, on TransCanada’s Columbia Gas (TCO) Midstream pipeline. Although the exact location remains unclear, the incident may be related to an explosion on a well pad or line in Marshall County, West Virginia. Shortly after the pipeline explosion, TCO issued a critical notice declaring Force […]