On May 23, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a rare emergency order under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to extend operations of the J.H. Campbell power plant in Michigan through August 21, 2025. The DOE directive required Consumers Energy and MISO to ensure the plant’s availability and to economically dispatch […]
The (Possible) Future of Federal Environmental Regulations during Donald Trump’s Second Term as U.S. President
The 2024 U.S. presidential election concluded with the victory of Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump, signaling anticipated shifts in environmental regulations and energy policies. Expected changes include potential reversals of recent EPA regulations, reallocations of unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), and heightened support for domestic […]
Baltimore Bridge Collapse Halts All Exports from the U.S. Second-Largest Coal Port
In the early hours of March 26, 2024, the maritime and energy sectors witnessed a significant disruption when a containership collided with a support pillar of the F.S. Key Bridge in Baltimore, causing a catastrophic collapse. This unforeseen incident has not only severed a vital artery for the city’s transportation network but also immediately halted […]
EVA Accurately Predicts Drop of Coal Inventories in its Monthly Coal Stockpile Report
On Friday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released official statistics of the U.S. electric power sector for the month of August as part of its EIA Form-923 reporting. As reported in EIA’s 923 data, coal inventories at U.S. coal-fired power plants dropped below 90 million tons amid higher coal plant utilization rates and a […]
Understanding 45Q: The Carbon Capture Tax Credit
With several states and a number of utilities adopting decarbonization goals, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) may find a role in an energy transition as coal and gas plants retrofitted with either technology could continue to operate. What is the 45Q tax credit? 45Q is a performance-based tax […]
Federal investigation spurs H.B. 6 repeal efforts and potential upside for gas
Ohio H.B. 6 repeal in the works following allegations of bribery Two Ohio House Democrats – Reps. Mike Skindell and Mike O’Brien – announced in a press release on Wednesday, July 22, that they will immediately introduce a bill to repeal House Bill 6, the controversial law passed a year ago that provides ratepayer-funded subsidies […]
COVID-19 and Possible Economic Demand Destruction
Let’s talk about the 6-ton elephant in the room, economic demand destruction. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and simultaneous oil price war have joined forces to drive a sector-wide commodity sell-off. As cities and states across the U.S. have begun issuing unprecedented measures to contain the spread of the virus (today, Governor Cuomo of New York […]
EVA Expects Coal Burn to Reach 470 Million Tons in 2020
NATIONAL TAKE-AWAYS After a warmer-than-expected winter, natural gas is expected to continue to take market share from coal resources through 2020. EVA’s March 2020 Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook draws the following high-level conclusions: January coal burn dropped by nearly 20 million tons YoY, the largest monthly drop recorded in recent history. Weak electricity […]
Pennsylvania Governor Pushes to Join RGGI
Pennsylvania makes strides towards joining regional carbon cap-and-trade program On October 3, 2019, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf (D) issued an executive order directing the state’s Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) to develop a proposal to limit power sector carbon emissions consistent with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), a multi-state cap-and-trade program intended to reduce […]
Coal Retrofits the Largest Source of Emission Reductions
Annual U.S. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) emissions from coal-fired plants have sharply declined over the past two decades. Relative to the 2000 levels SO2 and NOx emissions were 88% and 82% lower in 2018, respectively. Total SO2 emissions fell from ~11 million tons in 2000 to ~1.2 million tons in 2018. EVA’s […]
Update: Indiana Governor Signs Bill Preventing Public Utilities From Retiring Coal
Update: H.B. 1414 was signed into law by Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb (R) on March 23rd. The below blog post was EVA’s analysis as of January 27th. A recently proposed Indiana bill would prevent public utilities from retiring, selling, or otherwise altering the operations of any of their electric generating facilities without first obtaining permission […]
EVA Authors NARUC Whitepaper on Coal Plant Operation
January 27, 2020 Phillip Graeter and Seth Schwartz of Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) coauthored a white paper for the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) under a partnership with the United States Department of Energy (DOE) exploring the impact of changing markets on coal plant operations. The white paper, which can be downloaded by […]
Newly-Introduced Illinois Bill Seeks to Repeal Exelon Nuclear Subsidies
A bipartisan bill (H.B. 3987) filed by two Illinois state representatives on December 9 would effectively repeal a subsidy that Exelon receives via the sale of Zero Emission Credits (ZEC) by granting an exception to customers of electric utilities that serve more than three million retail customers in the state. If the bill is signed […]
Key Takeaways from EPA’s ACE Rule
Yesterday the EPA released the final Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule. The rule was mostly unchanged from the original proposed rule. EVA’s environmental team has drawn the following takeaways for how the ACE rule will impact the industry: The rule will impact all coal-fired electric generating units (EGUs) greater than 25 MW, which were in […]
Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook: ERCOT Spotlight
National Summary: Gas burn in February actualizing at a record 27.35 BCFD, nearly 0.6 BCFD higher than in January and 2.4 BCFD higher YoY. Coal burn was relatively flat YoY for February, while hydro generation declined by 13.5% from last year. Exhibit seven demonstrates that gas burn is expected to remain around 27 BCFD through […]
Gas and Coal Burn Sensitivity Outlook: MISO Spotlight
EVA’s latest monthly Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook indicates that annual 2019 coal burn will end up below 600 million tons while gas burn will surpass 2018 levels and end up at nearly 29 BCFD for the year. January gas burn was off to a good start with a 6.2% increase YoY, despite total […]
Forbes ranks EVA Among Top Energy Consulting firms in 2019
In its annual ranking of management consulting companies, Forbes ranked EVA as one of the leading firms in the Energy and Environment category. The rankings are based on surveys of more than 7,500 partner or executive level consultants and more than 1,000 senior executives who have worked with firms in the consulting industry. EVA is honored […]
Gas and Coal Burn Sensitivity Outlook: PJM Spotlight
EVA’s monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook shows that December gas burn actualized at 23.9, bringing the annual 2018 gas burn to roughly 29 BCFD—a record high. Coal burn declined YoY, falling to around 637 million tons in 2018. Only four years ago coal burn was above 800 million tons, highlighting how retirements and […]
ERCOT Price Reforms to Curtail Retirements and Incentivize Distributed Generation Investment
Executive Summary In an effort to increase resilience ahead of summer 2019 the Texas Public Utility Commission has approved reforms that will increase prices during high-demand periods in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. The reforms are expected to incentivize generators to defer retirement, while also sending price signals to customers to curtail […]
2018 Coal Burn at 644 Million Tons, Gas Burn at ~29 BCFD
EVA’s Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook forecasts that 2018 will end with Lower-48 coal burn at 644 million tons. 2017 annual power-sector coal burn was 666 million tons– 22 million tons more than in 2018. Going into September, coal burn was expected to fall by 25 million tons YoY. However, higher cash and […]
April Coal Exports Reach Highest Level Since March 2013 As U.S. Traders Take Advantage of Strong World Coal Market
April coal exports continue to be the lone bright star for domestic coal producers as domestic coal demand fails to rebound from already dire 2017 levels. Strong world coal markets, with CIF ARA thermal coal and Australian low-vol HCC metallurgical coal continuing to trade at high levels, enabled U.S. coal exporters to record the highest […]
Despite Short Month, U.S. Coal Exports Remain Strong as U.S. Coal Exporters Work Through Backlog
Despite it being the shortest month of the year, U.S. coal exporters were able to add to the already high levels of U.S. coal exports, shipping out 9.7 million tons of coal in February 2018, extending the +9 million tons of exports streak now to seven consecutive months. Increases in met coal exports were the […]
Clean Power Plan Repeal Finally Picks Up Steam
On October 10, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) added another chapter to the story of one of the most contentious environmental regulations, when EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt issued the proposed Clean Power Plan Repeal Rule. This action, almost 200 days after President Trump ordered the EPA in his Executive Order to Promote Energy […]
Rob DiDona’s EIA Presentation on Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition featured on THE COAL HUB
The report “Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition: The current state of play – impact on system dispatch,” first presented by Rob DiDona, leader of EVA’s power group, at the 2017 EIA Energy Conference, recently has been featured on THE COAL HUB. The report highlights the recent history of declining natural gas prices, the importance of […]
Metallurgical Coal Production drops in Third Quarter, Despite Strong Market Conditions
Quarterly coal production data from the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) show a significant drop in metallurgical coal production for the third quarter in 2017. While year-to-date metallurgical coal production is still well above 2016 levels (+26.7% through Q3), quarter-on-quarter production data shows a 9.5% decline, despite strong export market conditions for U.S. met […]
New Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook Projects 2017 Coal Generation to Actualize Lower than Expected
EVA has published its July Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook. The report provides insight into how Coal-to-Gas (C2G) competition may evolve given pending changes to fuel pricing and the fundamental structure of the electric power markets. EVA’s Scenario Analysis (SCAN) of modeled assumptions provides high-level insight into a broad range of market-driven outcomes. Highlights […]
Forbes ranks EVA among top Energy Consulting firms for 2017
In its annual ranking of management consulting companies, Forbes ranked EVA as one of the leading firms focused on Energy Consulting. The rankings are based on surveys of more than 1,000 partner level consultants and more than 1,000 business executives who have worked with the numerous firms included in the survey. EVA received 4 out […]
First Ozone Season Under the CSAPR Update Rule Begins Amid Uncertain Market Conditions
This month marks the official start of the 2017 ozone season. 22 eastern U.S. states will have to comply with much tighter emission budgets than over the last two ozone seasons. Emission budget reductions for CSAPR states, required by the EPA as part of the 2016 CSAPR Update Rule, have created very delicate market conditions […]
NEW PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENT Gas-Coal Burn Price Sensitivity Forecast Report
DESCRIPTION: The natural gas and coal markets are undergoing significant structural shifts in an era in which both fuels have become increasingly competitive within the electric power sector. What separates the recent history of ‘coal-to-gas’ switching (C2G)—to which many market participants have become accustomed—from today and the future are those structural changes which will make […]
EVA Releases the June Short-Term Coal Market Outlook
EVA’s Short-Term Coal Market Outlook Sample Please contact [email protected] for more information.
NERC publishes CPP Reliability Assessment based on EVA Modeling Results
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) completed an assessment on the potential risks to reliability resulting from the proposed Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan. NERC’s CPP reliability assessment modeled scenarios focused on evaluating generation and transmission adequacy and potential reliability impacts. Energy Ventures Analysis with its stellar AURORAxmp power modeling capabilities was chosen […]