EVA Forecasts Strong Supply and Demand Growth Masking a Tightening U.S. Gas Market in Summer 2026
Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. (EVA), along with The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA), released the Summer 2026 Natural Gas Market Outlook, highlighting record production growth, rising exports, and a tightening supply-demand balance across key demand sectors.
U.S. dry gas production is projected to reach a record 111.7 BCFD, up 4.9 BCFD year-over-year, with growth driven primarily by the Permian and Marcellus basins, though net Canadian imports are expected to slip 0.5 BCFD as tariff pressures and weak end-user demand limit cross-border flows. Storage enters the injection season near 1.9 TCF, approximately 5% above the five-year average, but end-of-summer inventories are projected to finish near 3.7 TCF, slightly below the historical range, as demand growth outpaces even record production levels. Henry Hub prices are entering shoulder season near $2.70/MMBtu, with the Summer 2026 forward strip near $2.92/MMBtu, reflecting market expectations of continued demand strength.
On the demand side, total consumption is forecast at 108.7 BCFD, up 6.4 BCFD from last summer. LNG exports lead growth, rising 4.3 BCFD to approximately 20 BCFD as Plaquemines LNG reaches full operation, Corpus Christi Stage 3 completes its final trains, and Golden Pass Train 1 is slated to enter service mid-year. Power burn is forecast at 40.3 BCFD, up 2.0 BCFD, as coal retirements continue to cement gas’s role in power generation and moderating prices support renewed coal-to-gas switching. Industrial demand rises modestly to 23 BCFD, while U.S.–Mexico pipeline exports hold near 6.8 BCFD, underpinned by seasonal power demand south of the border.
Data centers are an increasingly important driver of electricity and natural gas demand. U.S. data center capacity is projected to grow from 44 GW in 2025 to 55 GW in 2026, a 25% increase in a single year, before reaching 74 GW by 2027, with Virginia, Texas, and emerging hubs in Ohio and Georgia expected to anchor the majority of near-term growth.
Overall, the outlook indicates that the U.S. natural gas market will enter summer 2026 with record production, surging LNG exports, and broad-based demand growth across the power, industrial, and export sectors. The U.S. has the natural gas resources to meet that demand, but the tightening supply-demand balance underscores the importance of permitting reform and faster infrastructure development to keep energy affordable and reliable for consumers and businesses.
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About Energy Ventures Analysis: Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) is a leading provider of consulting and analytical services for the energy industry. With decades of experience, EVA delivers in-depth market analysis, strategic insights, and expert advice to support decision-making in the energy sector.