Power

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2018 Coal Burn at 644 Million Tons, Gas Burn at ~29 BCFD

EVA’s Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook forecasts that 2018 will end with Lower-48 coal burn at 644 million tons. 2017 annual power-sector coal burn was 666 million tons– 22 million tons more than in 2018. Going into September, coal burn was expected to fall by 25 million tons YoY. However, higher cash and […]

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Gas Week 47 Record-Withdrawal Adds to Uncertainty in Natural Gas Market Heading into Winter Season

On November 21, EIA announced the first withdrawal for this winter season, a massive -134 BCF net withdrawal for gas week ending 11/15. This brought a massive drop in gas inventories, pushing gas stocks down to 3,113 BCF, 710 BCF lower than the 5-year average. This withdrawal was also much higher than market expectations, which […]

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Different Shades of Cold: The 2018 Arctic Outbreak vs. the 2014 Polar Vortex

Following a mild start to this winter, cold weather finally arrived in late-December, with a record-breaking freeze sweeping down from Canada and spreading across nearly the entire U.S. east of the Rockies. The blast of cold has had an immediate impact on the market, causing production freeze-offs, surging heating demand and spiking gas and power […]

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SoCal Gas & Power Prices Rising Sharply Heading into December

December gas prices for SoCal Citygate increased dramatically over the last six weeks. On Monday, the December contract settled at $6.21/MMBTU, its highest settle in four years and more than $2/MMBTU higher than its average through 2017. The prospect of higher gas prices has also pushed SP-15 December power prices to record highs. As noted […]

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Clean Power Plan Repeal Finally Picks Up Steam

On October 10, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) added another chapter to the story of one of the most contentious environmental regulations, when EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt issued the proposed Clean Power Plan Repeal Rule.  This action, almost 200 days after President Trump ordered the EPA in his Executive Order to Promote Energy […]

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Rob DiDona’s EIA Presentation on Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition featured on THE COAL HUB

The report “Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition: The current state of play – impact on system dispatch,” first presented by Rob DiDona, leader of EVA’s power group, at the 2017 EIA Energy Conference, recently has been featured on THE COAL HUB. The report highlights the recent history of declining natural gas prices,  the importance of […]

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New Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook Projects 2017 Coal Generation to Actualize Lower than Expected

EVA has published its July Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook. The report provides insight into how Coal-to-Gas (C2G) competition may evolve given pending changes to fuel pricing and the fundamental structure of the electric power markets. EVA’s Scenario Analysis (SCAN) of modeled assumptions provides high-level insight into a broad range of market-driven outcomes. Highlights […]

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Forbes ranks EVA among top Energy Consulting firms for 2017

In its annual ranking of management consulting companies, Forbes ranked EVA as one of the leading firms focused on Energy Consulting. The rankings are based on surveys of more than 1,000 partner level consultants and more than 1,000 business executives who have worked with the numerous firms included in the survey. EVA received 4 out […]

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First Ozone Season Under the CSAPR Update Rule Begins Amid Uncertain Market Conditions

This month marks the official start of the 2017 ozone season. 22 eastern U.S. states will have to comply with much tighter emission budgets than over the last two ozone seasons. Emission budget reductions for CSAPR states, required by the EPA as part of the 2016 CSAPR Update Rule, have created very delicate market conditions […]

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Structural changes over the past 12 months set to increase power burn by 0.75 – 1.00 BCFD over next year

The advent of low natural gas prices as a result of the shale revolution led to a major structural shift from coal to gas in the power markets. Based on EVA’s proprietary Power Plant Tracking Database, almost 47 GW of gas-fired capacity has been added till date starting 2012. Nearly 13 GW of new gas […]

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