EVA Forecasts Strong Supply and Demand Growth Masking a Tightening U.S. Gas Market in Summer 2026 Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. (EVA), along with The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA), released the Summer 2026 Natural Gas Market Outlook, highlighting record production growth, rising exports, and a tightening supply-demand balance across key demand sectors. U.S. dry gas […]
EVA and NGSA Release 2025/26 Winter Natural Gas Market Outlook
EVA Forecasts Strong Winter Gas Market with Record Production and Rising LNG Flows Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) and Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released their Winter 2025–2026 Natural Gas Market Outlook, highlighting record supply and resilient demand across all sectors. U.S. dry gas production is projected to reach a record 108.5 BCFD, up nearly 4 […]
Campbell Power Plant Extension Likely Saved Michigan Ratepayers Millions During first 40 Days under DOE Order
On May 23, 2025, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a rare emergency order under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act to extend operations of the J.H. Campbell power plant in Michigan through August 21, 2025. The DOE directive required Consumers Energy and MISO to ensure the plant’s availability and to economically dispatch […]
One Big Beautiful Bill Signed: What Changed and What’s Next
Executive Summary On July 4, 2025, President Trump signed the Senate-amended One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). While many of the cuts from the House version remained, the final version of OBBBA introduces a more relaxed condition of eligibility for projects seeking to claim the new tech-neutral clean electricity tax credits (45Y and 48E) with […]
EVA and NGSA Release 2025 Summer Natural Gas Market Outlook
EVA Projects Tightening U.S. Gas Market as Infrastructure Expands and Demand Grows Vienna, VA — Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA), in partnership with the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA), has released its 2025 Summer Natural Gas Market Outlook, forecasting a tighter supply-demand balance driven by infrastructure expansions, growing LNG exports, and structural shifts in domestic energy […]
Trump Administration’s Wind Freeze: A Challenge for Offshore Wind, But Far from the End
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has triggered a significant shift in U.S. energy policy, with offshore wind facing its biggest challenge yet. A recent executive order (EO), published on January 20, 2025, halting leasing of federal land and waters for wind energy projects, has injected uncertainty into the sector, delaying key projects, discouraging […]
Intense Heatwave Triggers Surging Electricity Demand in PJM
The Mid-Atlantic region and states along the I-95 corridor experienced an intense heatwave over the past weekend, pushing temperatures to record highs and significantly raising electricity demand. PJM had issued a hot weather advisory for its Mid-Atlantic and Southern regions as 90-plus-degree weather persisted throughout the week of June 17. The advisory was subsequently extended […]
EVA Accurately Predicts Drop of Coal Inventories in its Monthly Coal Stockpile Report
On Friday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released official statistics of the U.S. electric power sector for the month of August as part of its EIA Form-923 reporting. As reported in EIA’s 923 data, coal inventories at U.S. coal-fired power plants dropped below 90 million tons amid higher coal plant utilization rates and a […]
EVA releases new Monthly Renewable Energy Outlook
Energy Ventures Analysis is pleased to introduce its newly revamped Monthly Renewable Energy Outlook. The Monthly Renewable Energy Outlook is a comprehensive report covering the entire U.S. renewable energy space. Highlights include recent policy updates, recently completed renewable energy projects, the current status of the combined and individual Interconnection Queues for the seven major U.S. […]
NGSA and EVA publish Natural Gas Market Outlook for Winter 2021-2022
The Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) and Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) released the Natural Gas Market Outlook report for Winter 2021-2022. Highlights include forecasts for gas production, Canadian gas imports, power burns and economical switching, industrial demand, LNG exports, Mexican gas exports, and end-of-winter season storage scenario analysis. U.S. natural gas market became significantly tighter […]
Federal investigation spurs H.B. 6 repeal efforts and potential upside for gas
Ohio H.B. 6 repeal in the works following allegations of bribery Two Ohio House Democrats – Reps. Mike Skindell and Mike O’Brien – announced in a press release on Wednesday, July 22, that they will immediately introduce a bill to repeal House Bill 6, the controversial law passed a year ago that provides ratepayer-funded subsidies […]
California’s Natural Gas Challenge
California finding it difficult to get past natural gas In late 2019, Southern California Edison released “Pathway 2045”, its report on how the utility will meet the state’s aggressive carbon reduction mandates. Just over a year earlier, then-Governor Gavin Jerry Brown (D) signed into law S.B. 100, which accelerated the state’s existing renewable portfolio standard […]
COVID-19 and Mild Weather Combine to Suppress Electricity Demand
COVID-19 and Mild Weather Combine to Suppress Electricity Demand Electricity demand in the continental U.S. since the beginning of the year has been sharply lower than during the same period in 2019, though the response to the ongoing COVID-19 virus pandemic is only partially to blame. Demand across the six largest centrally-dispatched markets – PJM, […]
EVA Expects Coal Burn to Reach 470 Million Tons in 2020
NATIONAL TAKE-AWAYS After a warmer-than-expected winter, natural gas is expected to continue to take market share from coal resources through 2020. EVA’s March 2020 Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook draws the following high-level conclusions: January coal burn dropped by nearly 20 million tons YoY, the largest monthly drop recorded in recent history. Weak electricity […]
Coal Retrofits the Largest Source of Emission Reductions
Annual U.S. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) emissions from coal-fired plants have sharply declined over the past two decades. Relative to the 2000 levels SO2 and NOx emissions were 88% and 82% lower in 2018, respectively. Total SO2 emissions fell from ~11 million tons in 2000 to ~1.2 million tons in 2018. EVA’s […]
New York Carbon Emissions Set to Rise in the Wake of Indian Point Retirement
EVA has modeled the impact of the retirement of Entergy’s Indian Point nuclear plant and found that in the near term, power sector carbon emissions will increase as the lost nuclear generation is replaced with natural gas generation. Further, the retirement will increase the cost to comply with the state’s recently updated Clean Energy Standard […]
Special Report: New York’s “Green New Deal”
EVA has published a special report analyzing the power-sector impacts of New York’s “Green New Deal” legislation. An executive summary of the report can be read below. Executive Summary Background on New York’s ” Green New Deal” On July 18th, 2019, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) signed into law the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act […]
EVA and NGSA Release Winter Natural Gas Outlook
EVA worked closely with staff at Natural Gas Supply Association to produce a Winter Natural Gas Outlook for 2019-2020. Top line findings from the NGSA’s Winter Natural Gas Outlook include: U.S. natural gas supply and demand for 2019-2020 winter are both forecasted to experience substantial growth winter-over-winter. Total gas production is expected to grow 3.8 […]
Key Takeaways from EPA’s ACE Rule
Yesterday the EPA released the final Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule. The rule was mostly unchanged from the original proposed rule. EVA’s environmental team has drawn the following takeaways for how the ACE rule will impact the industry: The rule will impact all coal-fired electric generating units (EGUs) greater than 25 MW, which were in […]
Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook: ERCOT Spotlight
National Summary: Gas burn in February actualizing at a record 27.35 BCFD, nearly 0.6 BCFD higher than in January and 2.4 BCFD higher YoY. Coal burn was relatively flat YoY for February, while hydro generation declined by 13.5% from last year. Exhibit seven demonstrates that gas burn is expected to remain around 27 BCFD through […]
Forbes ranks EVA Among Top Energy Consulting firms in 2019
In its annual ranking of management consulting companies, Forbes ranked EVA as one of the leading firms in the Energy and Environment category. The rankings are based on surveys of more than 7,500 partner or executive level consultants and more than 1,000 senior executives who have worked with firms in the consulting industry. EVA is honored […]
Gas and Coal Burn Sensitivity Outlook: PJM Spotlight
EVA’s monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook shows that December gas burn actualized at 23.9, bringing the annual 2018 gas burn to roughly 29 BCFD—a record high. Coal burn declined YoY, falling to around 637 million tons in 2018. Only four years ago coal burn was above 800 million tons, highlighting how retirements and […]
ERCOT Price Reforms to Curtail Retirements and Incentivize Distributed Generation Investment
Executive Summary In an effort to increase resilience ahead of summer 2019 the Texas Public Utility Commission has approved reforms that will increase prices during high-demand periods in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. The reforms are expected to incentivize generators to defer retirement, while also sending price signals to customers to curtail […]
2018 Coal Burn at 644 Million Tons, Gas Burn at ~29 BCFD
EVA’s Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook forecasts that 2018 will end with Lower-48 coal burn at 644 million tons. 2017 annual power-sector coal burn was 666 million tons– 22 million tons more than in 2018. Going into September, coal burn was expected to fall by 25 million tons YoY. However, higher cash and […]
Gas Week 47 Record-Withdrawal Adds to Uncertainty in Natural Gas Market Heading into Winter Season
On November 21, EIA announced the first withdrawal for this winter season, a massive -134 BCF net withdrawal for gas week ending 11/15. This brought a massive drop in gas inventories, pushing gas stocks down to 3,113 BCF, 710 BCF lower than the 5-year average. This withdrawal was also much higher than market expectations, which […]
Different Shades of Cold: The 2018 Arctic Outbreak vs. the 2014 Polar Vortex
Following a mild start to this winter, cold weather finally arrived in late-December, with a record-breaking freeze sweeping down from Canada and spreading across nearly the entire U.S. east of the Rockies. The blast of cold has had an immediate impact on the market, causing production freeze-offs, surging heating demand and spiking gas and power […]
SoCal Gas & Power Prices Rising Sharply Heading into December
December gas prices for SoCal Citygate increased dramatically over the last six weeks. On Monday, the December contract settled at $6.21/MMBTU, its highest settle in four years and more than $2/MMBTU higher than its average through 2017. The prospect of higher gas prices has also pushed SP-15 December power prices to record highs. As noted […]
Clean Power Plan Repeal Finally Picks Up Steam
On October 10, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) added another chapter to the story of one of the most contentious environmental regulations, when EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt issued the proposed Clean Power Plan Repeal Rule. This action, almost 200 days after President Trump ordered the EPA in his Executive Order to Promote Energy […]
Rob DiDona’s EIA Presentation on Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition featured on THE COAL HUB
The report “Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition: The current state of play – impact on system dispatch,” first presented by Rob DiDona, leader of EVA’s power group, at the 2017 EIA Energy Conference, recently has been featured on THE COAL HUB. The report highlights the recent history of declining natural gas prices, the importance of […]
New Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook Projects 2017 Coal Generation to Actualize Lower than Expected
EVA has published its July Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook. The report provides insight into how Coal-to-Gas (C2G) competition may evolve given pending changes to fuel pricing and the fundamental structure of the electric power markets. EVA’s Scenario Analysis (SCAN) of modeled assumptions provides high-level insight into a broad range of market-driven outcomes. Highlights […]
Forbes ranks EVA among top Energy Consulting firms for 2017
In its annual ranking of management consulting companies, Forbes ranked EVA as one of the leading firms focused on Energy Consulting. The rankings are based on surveys of more than 1,000 partner level consultants and more than 1,000 business executives who have worked with the numerous firms included in the survey. EVA received 4 out […]
First Ozone Season Under the CSAPR Update Rule Begins Amid Uncertain Market Conditions
This month marks the official start of the 2017 ozone season. 22 eastern U.S. states will have to comply with much tighter emission budgets than over the last two ozone seasons. Emission budget reductions for CSAPR states, required by the EPA as part of the 2016 CSAPR Update Rule, have created very delicate market conditions […]
Structural changes over the past 12 months set to increase power burn by 0.75 – 1.00 BCFD over next year
The advent of low natural gas prices as a result of the shale revolution led to a major structural shift from coal to gas in the power markets. Based on EVA’s proprietary Power Plant Tracking Database, almost 47 GW of gas-fired capacity has been added till date starting 2012. Nearly 13 GW of new gas […]
EVA Special Report: Electric Vehicles Poised to Gain Increased U.S. Market Share
Arlington, Virginia – March 3, 2017. Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) today published a report evaluating the future of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States. The report, Outlook for Electric Vehicles in the U.S., reviews the current status of the EV market and evaluates the uncertainties surrounding the emerging technology and relevant regulations. In the […]
EVA Special Report: Competition Between Renewables and Natural Gas Escalates
Arlington, Virginia – January 19, 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) today published a report analyzing regional dynamics of near-term renewables and gas power capacity additions. The report focuses on a few critical states (Texas, California, Pennsylvania and New York) and evaluates the increasingly prevalent competition between gas and renewable energy (namely, wind and utility-scale solar […]
Robert DiDona to Lead Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.’s Power Practice
Arlington, Virginia – November 29, 2016 – Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. (EVA), announced today that Robert DiDona has joined the firm as a Partner, heading the Power Practice business unit. Mr. DiDona joins EVA from BNP Paribas where he was the Head of US Power Trading managing proprietary trading books, client flow and structured transactions. […]
NEW PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENT Gas-Coal Burn Price Sensitivity Forecast Report
DESCRIPTION: The natural gas and coal markets are undergoing significant structural shifts in an era in which both fuels have become increasingly competitive within the electric power sector. What separates the recent history of ‘coal-to-gas’ switching (C2G)—to which many market participants have become accustomed—from today and the future are those structural changes which will make […]
Phillip Graeter to address the World’s Largest Power Generation Event
Arlington, Virginia – July 6, 2016 – EVA’s Phillip Graeter is set to speak at POWER-GEN International Conference and Exhibition, to be held December 13-15, 2016 in Orlando, Florida. Mr. Graeter will be addressing the session on low-carbon challenges, industry developments and system impacts with his presentation, “Impacts of Clean Power Plan Policy Strategies on […]
NERC publishes CPP Reliability Assessment based on EVA Modeling Results
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) completed an assessment on the potential risks to reliability resulting from the proposed Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan. NERC’s CPP reliability assessment modeled scenarios focused on evaluating generation and transmission adequacy and potential reliability impacts. Energy Ventures Analysis with its stellar AURORAxmp power modeling capabilities was chosen […]