EVA has published a special report analyzing the power-sector impacts of New York’s “Green New Deal” legislation. An executive summary of the report can be read below.
Executive Summary
Background on New York’s ” Green New Deal”
On July 18th, 2019, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) signed into law the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (“CLCPA”). The law, which was in part inspired by the Green New Deal policy concept, commits the United States’ fourth-most populous state and third-largest economy to source 70% of its electricity from renewable resources by 2030, and 100% of it by 2040. The law further calls for a net emission-free state economy by 2050.
The CLCPA allocates planning responsibilities to a 22-member “Climate Action Council” (NYCAC) and further stipulates that the Council’s forthcoming “scoping plan” must include specific elements. Some of the more significant elements include:
- 6 gigawatts (GW) of distributed solar energy capacity by 2025
- 9 GW of offshore wind capacity installed by 2035
- 3 GW of statewide energy storage capacity by 2030
Findings
Energy Ventures Analysis (“EVA”) conducted a preliminary analysis of the impacts of the CLCPA on the power sector using a heavily customized version of the Aurora power dispatch model, which EVA licenses from Energy Exemplar.
EVA’s modeling indicates that the CLCPA will drive upwards of $115 billion[1] in investment in new resources by 2040 as the state transitions from a gas-dominated capacity mix to one that is much more renewable-focused. By 2030, solar and wind will make up 39% of the installed capacity in the state, with nuclear and hydro facilities account for an additional 14%. By 2040, the share of wind and solar leaps to 83%. Meanwhile, fossil resources’ share of the capacity mix will decline from 66% in 2019 to zero in 2040 as the CLCPA effectively bans generation from carbon-emitting resources.
EVA’s NYISO 2040 White Paper includes an in-depth discussion of the policy as well as forecasted generation mix, forecasts of on-peak and off-peak power prices by zone, and other analytics. To purchase a copy of our NYISO 2040 White Paper and data dispatch, please contact Rob DiDona at [email protected].
[1] This estimate does not include the cost of building new transmission lines.