Arlington, Virginia – July 7, 2016 – Today’s Highlights:
- Expecting a build of 43 BCF for gas week 6/30. 26/17/-2/3/-1 split. SSC and Transco 912 submissions ran right at the observed border with South Central scrapes, driving the lower withdrawal, relative to avg estimates, expectation there.
- Odd settlement along yesterday’s curve. Among other things: only the 4th time since March 2009 whereby H/J settled at least 1.8c lower coincident with J settling at least 3.3c higher. Evidence of money flowing into Cal 17 strip, the rarity of the event offering insight into its macro-fund nature.
- Broad evidence of price efficacy with the July indexes continues – final cycle Wednesday data continues to demonstrate loosening beyond holiday influences. In-day Thursday data showing some tightening day-on-day, which is expected. The idea that the July 2016 indexes are among the most crucial of the shale era proceeds. Some tightness on DTI by way of maintenance.
- Cash disappointed yesterday relative to today’s national temperatures topping out at their highest in 344 days (7/29/15) – averaging slightly inside the NYMEX N/Q roll of 2.7c. But there’s a ton of money behind the “macro” love for natural gas, and we saw it in yesterday’s flow and settlements. Rallies look good to fade, but be quick with gains. Spreads are supportive up front early here, Q can trade 2.850 here, where higher is available should V/F trade outside -51.5 coincidentally.
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