On March 28, President Trump signed a highly anticipated Executive Order that will significantly impact future and existing environmental regulations. While media rumors regarding the content of the Executive Order were for the most part correct, the implications of this administrative action remain to be seen. President Trump’s “Executive Order on Promoting Energy Independence and […]
Natural Gas Markets Tighten Setting the Stage for a Price Surge
Arlington, Virginia – EVA has released its monthly forecast of the U.S. natural gas markets with related prices for March. The exceptionally mild 2016/2017 winter masked a relatively narrow supply and demand balance. The correspondingly lower winter prices has restrained—to a degree—upstream investment priming the market for serious tightness heading into the summer. However, the […]
Steady Summer Flows: Global price differentials tighten heading into summer, but not enough to shut-in Sabine Pass
Since beginning operations in February 2016, exports from Sabine Pass LNG on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana have flowed at high utilization rates. More than 100 cargoes have already been shipped from the terminal and besides a 3-week shutdown for scheduled maintenance in November, the project has operated at near full capacity. The high output […]
Equal Demand Reaction? Sagging U.S. gasoline demand may thwart OPEC’s efforts to balance markets
The key premise of OPEC’s plan to balance oil markets was that reduced production, combined with increasing global oil demand, would erode excess supply. While the supply cuts have proceeded largely as planned, global oil demand remains an outstanding question. Most demand expectations for 2017 were already rather modest, ranging around 1.1 MMBD, or 1.1% […]
EVA Special Report: Electric Vehicles Poised to Gain Increased U.S. Market Share
Arlington, Virginia – March 3, 2017. Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) today published a report evaluating the future of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States. The report, Outlook for Electric Vehicles in the U.S., reviews the current status of the EV market and evaluates the uncertainties surrounding the emerging technology and relevant regulations. In the […]
Unwavering Support: Congress and the new administration will likely seek to expedite U.S. LNG exports
Over the last several years, a general bi-partisan consensus had emerged in support of U.S. LNG exports. The Republican party has strongly advocated for exports and while staunch opposition persists among a small set of Democratic politicians, most followed the Obama administration’s position of offering tepid support—provided projects first complete a comprehensive permitting process. Under […]
No CPP, No Problem
To keep in line with the twists and turns of the fate of EPA’s Clean Power Plan, one of the highest-profile environmental regulations to come out of the Agency, which aims to reduce U.S. power sector CO2 emissions by more than 30% by 2030 below 2005 levels, the November 8 presidential election was no different. […]
A Record Year: 2016 solar capacity build reaches all-time highs
Final numbers from EIA prove what the solar industry had long suspected: 2016 was a record year for solar build in the United States. Driven by plummeting costs and strong policy support in key markets, 13.7 GW of new solar capacity was added in 2016, pushing total U.S capacity to 35.9 GW. The 13.7 […]
EVA Special Report: Second Wave of U.S. LNG Exports to Rival Magnitude of First Wave
Arlington, Virginia – February 14, 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) today published a report analyzing the current status of U.S. LNG exports. The report goes beyond the increasingly well-understood first wave of U.S. LNG projects and evaluates the potential timing and magnitude of a second phase of projects likely to be sanctioned over the next […]
Environmental / Regulatory Affairs – What to expect in 2017
The turn of the year always allows time to reflect on what has transpired over the past year and what is to come during the next. This month’s newsletter provides a high-level overview of what to expect on the federal and state regulatory level affecting the domestic energy industry. Federal EPA Clean Power Plan (CPP) […]
Solar Down South: EIA AEO 2017 predicts enormous solar PV builds in the Southeast
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its Annual Energy Outlook for 2017 (AEO 2017), which provides projections through 2050. One of the more interesting results from this year’s release is the EIA’s reference case projection of an enormous increase in long-term solar PV capacity in the Southeast. Utility-scale solar PV capacity in […]
More Than a Headline? A closer look at non-binding HOA offtake contracts
Despite a strong consensus that the global LNG market is headed into a period of considerable oversupply, developers continue seek every opportunity to garner commercial momentum for their proposed LNG projects. Binding offtake contracts remain a necessity for new LNG projects. Given the scale of the investment and length of the construction timeline, proposed projects […]
EVA Special Report: Competition Between Renewables and Natural Gas Escalates
Arlington, Virginia – January 19, 2017 Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) today published a report analyzing regional dynamics of near-term renewables and gas power capacity additions. The report focuses on a few critical states (Texas, California, Pennsylvania and New York) and evaluates the increasingly prevalent competition between gas and renewable energy (namely, wind and utility-scale solar […]
Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast
Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast Published December 29, 2016 Arlington, Virginia – December 29, 2016 – EVA Decodes OPEC’s Fuzzy Math and Finds Global Glut to Persist Through 2017. In EVA’s recently released Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast the OPEC plan for balancing global […]
Energy Ventures Analysis’ Leading Natural Gas Market Advisory Service Anticipated Surprise JAN Expiration for Weeks
Arlington, Virginia – January 5, 2017 Headlines flashed across markets last week announcing that natural gas prices had ripped their way to a two-year high as threats of cold-air invasions met an unusually-tight supply/demand balance, completing a 5-day, 20.5% rally into the JAN contract expiry of $3.93. Clearly, this found many market participants surprised, with […]
Betting Big on Spot: Massive tenders from new importers push LNG spot market to new heights
In the past few months, two relatively new LNG buyers—Pakistan and Egypt—issued unprecedented tenders for short-term LNG supply. The deals, though not fully completed, reflect the convergence of two mutually-reinforcing trends: the rapid emergence of new importers and the heavy surplus of LNG set to hit the market in the next few years. In late […]
Expand and Extend: Multiple states double down on their RPS programs, but will obstacles emerge?
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) now exist in 29 states plus the District of Columbia. Thus far, all states have been able to meet their rising targets, albeit by very different compliance mechanisms. The seeming success of the programs has driven the more recent trend of states extending and expanding their RPS objectives, measures that have […]
How the Trump Administration could change the Environmental Regulatory Landscape
On November 8, 2016, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump achieved one of the biggest political surprises in the history of presidential elections. This month’s newsletter examines what short- and long-term impacts the incoming administration can have on the environmental regulatory landscape over the next four years. During the election, candidate Trump discussed repealing environmental laws […]
Robert DiDona to Lead Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.’s Power Practice
Arlington, Virginia – November 29, 2016 – Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc. (EVA), announced today that Robert DiDona has joined the firm as a Partner, heading the Power Practice business unit. Mr. DiDona joins EVA from BNP Paribas where he was the Head of US Power Trading managing proprietary trading books, client flow and structured transactions. […]
The Obvious but Critical Question: What happens to renewable energy under President Trump?
After eight years of steadfast support from the Obama administration, President-elect Trump and the Republican-led Congress appear eager to reduce or wholly eliminate various federal climate change efforts. This will negatively impact renewable energy development, but key support mechanisms will remain in place. Regardless, under the new administration, state-level incentives will emerge as the primary […]
Canadian Milestone: What the (apparent) success of Woodfibre LNG says about the current LNG market
In early November, Singapore-based Pacific Oil & Gas authorized financing for its 2.1 MMTPA (280 MMCFD) Woodfibre LNG project in Squamish, British Columbia. The announcement appeared to stop short of a full Final Investment Decision (FID), as it remains contingent on receipt of a few local and provincial approvals. While not guaranteed, those approvals are […]
EPA’s 2016 CSAPR Seasonal NOx Update Rule and its Effect on Coal Generation
On September 7, 2016 the EPA finalized an update to its Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) ozone season program. The CSAPR Update Rule adjusts state budgets to maintain the 2008 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for Ozone (75 ppb). While state budgets have increased for most states from the proposed rule, some states and […]
EVA Provides a Structured Assessment of the Dynamic Long-term Global LNG Market
ARLINGTON, Va., Oct. 17, 2016 The global LNG industry is in the midst of a massive transformation. New supply is expected to overwhelm demand and drive down prices to levels not seen in decades. Lower prices could spur new LNG demand, including from dozens of emerging markets that represent every major region in the world. […]
Energy Ventures Analysis’ Daily Natural Gas Advisory Service Uniquely out in Front of Breakout Price Rally
Arlington, Virginia – October 7, 2016 – By employing their proprietary modeling and intelligence of both market fundamentals and price/volume term-structure, EVA has positioned its Daily Natural Gas Advisory clients ahead of one of the largest non-fundamental price moves of the past three years. Through continuous observation of flat price, spreads, volumes, volatilities and how […]
NEW PRODUCT ANNOUNCEMENT Gas-Coal Burn Price Sensitivity Forecast Report
DESCRIPTION: The natural gas and coal markets are undergoing significant structural shifts in an era in which both fuels have become increasingly competitive within the electric power sector. What separates the recent history of ‘coal-to-gas’ switching (C2G)—to which many market participants have become accustomed—from today and the future are those structural changes which will make […]
EVA’s August Monthly Natural Gas Price Forecast Released
Arlington, Virginia – September 26, 2016 – EVA has released its monthly forecast of the U.S. natural gas markets with related prices for the month of September. With the Summer now firmly in the past the current focus is on the near term uncertainties that will dominate the outcome of Winter 2016/2017 supply and prices. […]
Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast
Arlington, Virginia – September 26, 2016 – EVA has released its Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast report. Building on last month’s report, market’s main concern is the timeline for a re-balancing of supply and demand in the market. IEA and OPEC are now looking at 2018 which is more in line […]
The CPP Goes to Court: Update on the litigation of EPA’s Clean Power Plan
After months of anticipation, EPA’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) – one of the most watched environmental regulations coming out of Washington, DC – finally had its first day in court on September 27. This newsletter summarizes the Clean Power Plan and the legal issues at stake, previews the remaining schedule for the litigation, and highlights […]
Michael Schaal to keynote the Platts Pipeline Development and Expansion Conference on September 29 in Houston
Arlington, Virginia – September 14, 2016 – Michael Schaal will speak at the keynote session at the Platts 11th Annual Pipeline Development and Expansion Conference, to be held September 29-30 in Houston. Michael will be kicking off the conference with, “Oil and Natural Gas Pricing Report.” Michael will be providing an overview of the current […]
New York’s Clean Energy Standard puts the state (back) at the forefront of fighting Climate Change
On August 1, 2016, New York’s Public Service Commission presented the Clean Energy Standard (CES). New York’s latest policy achievement to combat climate change will require 50% of the state’s 2030 electricity consumption to come from renewable energy sources and provide financial incentives to at-risk upstate nuclear power plants for their carbon-free electricity. The 50 […]
EVA’s Monthly Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast Released
Arlington, Virginia – August 26, 2016 – EVA just released its Monthly Short-Term Crude oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast report. A current issue in the market is the timeline for when supply and demand could eventually balance. EVA’s view is that the market will not be in balance until YE2017, which notably contrasts the […]
EVA’s August Monthly Natural Gas Price Forecast Released
Arlington, Virginia – August 26, 2016 – EVA has released its monthly forecast of the U.S. natural gas markets with related prices for the month of August. With Summer coming to its conclusion for the year, the future uncertainties confronting the near-term natural gas markets include the range of potential Winter weather outcomes and a […]
EVA Release: Quarterly Overview of the Natural Gas Industry
Arlington, Virginia – August 4, 2016 – EVA has released the Quarterly Overview of the Natural Gas Industry. The report systematically covers the seasonal, structural and other drivers shaping the U.S. natural gas markets through 2019. The outlook beyond the current natural gas storage overhang is shaping up to be complex as several discrete structural […]
EVA’s Monthly Natural Gas Price Forecast Released
Arlington, Virginia – July 26, 2016 – EVA has released its monthly forecast of U.S. natural gas markets and prices. The market has responded to the declining production that had been noted in prior monthly updates with an increase in natural gas prices. However, there remains a storage overhang that will exert continued downward pressure […]
EVA’s Monthly Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast Released
Arlington, Virginia – July 27, 2016 – EVA has released its monthly forecast of crude oil and petroleum products price forecast. There continue to be indications that the current era of excess supply will persist until 2017. The series of temporary curtailments of supplies due to Canadian wildfires, the Kuwait workers strike, and the problems […]
Trouble All Around: Results from the California Cap & Trade program’s latest auction hints at worrisome future
California’s cap-and-trade program, established under Assembly Bill 32 (AB 32) by then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, which aims to reduce California’s GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, is facing significant legal, political, and financial troubles. The latest cap-and-trade allowance auction held in May displays worrisome results. Of the almost 78 million allowances available in the auction, […]
Energy Ventures Analysis relaunches Natural Gas Daily Advisory Report
Arlington, Virginia – July 7, 2016 – Today’s Highlights: Expecting a build of 43 BCF for gas week 6/30. 26/17/-2/3/-1 split. SSC and Transco 912 submissions ran right at the observed border with South Central scrapes, driving the lower withdrawal, relative to avg estimates, expectation there. Odd settlement along yesterday’s curve. Among other things: only the 4th time […]
Phillip Graeter to address the World’s Largest Power Generation Event
Arlington, Virginia – July 6, 2016 – EVA’s Phillip Graeter is set to speak at POWER-GEN International Conference and Exhibition, to be held December 13-15, 2016 in Orlando, Florida. Mr. Graeter will be addressing the session on low-carbon challenges, industry developments and system impacts with his presentation, “Impacts of Clean Power Plan Policy Strategies on […]
EVA’s Monthly Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast Released
Arlington, Virginia – June 29, 2016 – EVA has released its monthly forecast of crude oil and petroleum products price forecast. There are indications that excess crude oil supply will persist for the next few years, which limits the likelihood of significant upward movements in crude oil prices. Against a backdrop of less global liquid […]
EVA’s Monthly Natural Gas Price Forecast Released
Arlington, Virginia – June 27, 2016 – EVA has released its monthly forecast of U.S. natural gas markets and prices. The slight decline in total U.S. production is expected to be the net result of several different trends and infrastructure events, as described in the report. The forecast growth in demand and exports is also […]
EVA Releases the June Short-Term Coal Market Outlook
EVA’s Short-Term Coal Market Outlook Sample Please contact [email protected] for more information.
Michael Schaal to keynote the 4th Frac Sand Conference on September 12th in Minneapolis
Arlington, Virginia – June 16, 2016 – Michael Schaal has been announced as a speaker on the keynote session at the 4th Annual Frac Sand Conference, to be held September 12-13 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Michael will be kicking off the conference with, “Setting the scene: What’s next for the U.S. shale industry?” Michael will be […]
Michael Schaal to lead Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.’s Natural Gas and Petroleum practice
For Immediate Release June 6, 2016 Contact: Donna Wilson (703) 276-8900 EIA veteran to lead Energy Ventures Analysis, Inc.’s Natural Gas and Petroleum practice Michael Schaal joins EVA to lead their natural gas and petroleum consulting to meet the needs of today’s complex markets. Arlington, Virginia – Michael Schaal, former Director of the U.S. […]
NERC publishes CPP Reliability Assessment based on EVA Modeling Results
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) completed an assessment on the potential risks to reliability resulting from the proposed Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan. NERC’s CPP reliability assessment modeled scenarios focused on evaluating generation and transmission adequacy and potential reliability impacts. Energy Ventures Analysis with its stellar AURORAxmp power modeling capabilities was chosen […]