EVA has published a special report analyzing the power-sector impacts of New York’s “Green New Deal” legislation. An executive summary of the report can be read below. Executive Summary Background on New York’s ” Green New Deal” On July 18th, 2019, Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) signed into law the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act […]
Why did ERCOT’s Power Prices Spike in August?
ERCOT August 2019 Price Spikes Background August 13th, as temperatures rose during the day, ERCOT power prices climbed to around $6,500/MWh around 2:00 pm before suddenly jumping to the $9,000/MWh that is enforced by market rules from roughly 3:30 pm to 4:45 pm. Two days later, even though system-wide load was several thousand MWs below […]
EVA and NGSA Release Winter Natural Gas Outlook
EVA worked closely with staff at Natural Gas Supply Association to produce a Winter Natural Gas Outlook for 2019-2020. Top line findings from the NGSA’s Winter Natural Gas Outlook include: U.S. natural gas supply and demand for 2019-2020 winter are both forecasted to experience substantial growth winter-over-winter. Total gas production is expected to grow 3.8 […]
EVA Report Finds the Renewable Fuel Standard Obsolete
| DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT HERE | Several independent merchant refiners (belonging to the Fueling American Jobs Coalition) recently asked Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) to take a fresh look at how the current Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is performing as an energy policy in the current era of ever-increasing U.S. energy independence. The results are […]
Key Takeaways from EPA’s ACE Rule
Yesterday the EPA released the final Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule. The rule was mostly unchanged from the original proposed rule. EVA’s environmental team has drawn the following takeaways for how the ACE rule will impact the industry: The rule will impact all coal-fired electric generating units (EGUs) greater than 25 MW, which were in […]
EVA Forecasts Strong Exports and Industrial Demand to Underpin Record-Setting Gas Demand this Summer
On May 30, 2018, Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released their 2019 Summer Outlook for Natural Gas, which was prepared by Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA). According to EVA’s forecast, remarkable demand growth for the upcoming summer will be matched by record-setting production, resulting in flat price expectations summer-over-summer. Summer 2019 begins with a 1.13 TCF […]
Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook: ERCOT Spotlight
National Summary: Gas burn in February actualizing at a record 27.35 BCFD, nearly 0.6 BCFD higher than in January and 2.4 BCFD higher YoY. Coal burn was relatively flat YoY for February, while hydro generation declined by 13.5% from last year. Exhibit seven demonstrates that gas burn is expected to remain around 27 BCFD through […]
Gas and Coal Burn Sensitivity Outlook: MISO Spotlight
EVA’s latest monthly Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook indicates that annual 2019 coal burn will end up below 600 million tons while gas burn will surpass 2018 levels and end up at nearly 29 BCFD for the year. January gas burn was off to a good start with a 6.2% increase YoY, despite total […]
Commentary on the Gas Week 3/14 Storage Report
This morning EIA announced a 47 BCF withdrawal for gas week ending 3/14. This storage draw brings U.S. total working gas down to 1,143 BCF, with the deficit to the 5-year average narrowing from 569 BCF to 556 BCF. This is the first time we’ve saw below average withdrawal in a month. In this week’s […]
Forbes ranks EVA Among Top Energy Consulting firms in 2019
In its annual ranking of management consulting companies, Forbes ranked EVA as one of the leading firms in the Energy and Environment category. The rankings are based on surveys of more than 7,500 partner or executive level consultants and more than 1,000 senior executives who have worked with firms in the consulting industry. EVA is honored […]
Gas and Coal Burn Sensitivity Outlook: PJM Spotlight
EVA’s monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook shows that December gas burn actualized at 23.9, bringing the annual 2018 gas burn to roughly 29 BCFD—a record high. Coal burn declined YoY, falling to around 637 million tons in 2018. Only four years ago coal burn was above 800 million tons, highlighting how retirements and […]
ERCOT Price Reforms to Curtail Retirements and Incentivize Distributed Generation Investment
Executive Summary In an effort to increase resilience ahead of summer 2019 the Texas Public Utility Commission has approved reforms that will increase prices during high-demand periods in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. The reforms are expected to incentivize generators to defer retirement, while also sending price signals to customers to curtail […]
Massachusetts’ Comprehensive Energy Plan Aspires for an Electric Future
Background The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) published its long-awaited energy plan on December 12th. DOER had been directed by Governor Charlie Baker in a September 2016 executive order to publish a “Comprehensive Energy Plan” (CEP) for the commonwealth. The CEP articulates the state’s high-level strategy to meet its commitment to reduce GHG emissions […]
2018 Coal Burn at 644 Million Tons, Gas Burn at ~29 BCFD
EVA’s Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook forecasts that 2018 will end with Lower-48 coal burn at 644 million tons. 2017 annual power-sector coal burn was 666 million tons– 22 million tons more than in 2018. Going into September, coal burn was expected to fall by 25 million tons YoY. However, higher cash and […]
Gas Week 47 Record-Withdrawal Adds to Uncertainty in Natural Gas Market Heading into Winter Season
On November 21, EIA announced the first withdrawal for this winter season, a massive -134 BCF net withdrawal for gas week ending 11/15. This brought a massive drop in gas inventories, pushing gas stocks down to 3,113 BCF, 710 BCF lower than the 5-year average. This withdrawal was also much higher than market expectations, which […]
EVA’s 2017 Power Plant Performance Report Featured in Most Recent Power Engineering Magazine
EVA’s annual Power Plant Performance Report is featured in the June issue of PennWell’s Power Engineering magazine. The Power Plant Performance Report is based on data and analysis provided by EVA’s analysts. The data is collected from Form EIA 923 “Power Plant Report” and EPA’s Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS). It was another year of […]
Pipeline Explosion at TCO Likely to Impact Flows and Prices
A pipeline explosion occurred around 4:15 am on June 7, 2018, on TransCanada’s Columbia Gas (TCO) Midstream pipeline. Although the exact location remains unclear, the incident may be related to an explosion on a well pad or line in Marshall County, West Virginia. Shortly after the pipeline explosion, TCO issued a critical notice declaring Force […]
April Coal Exports Reach Highest Level Since March 2013 As U.S. Traders Take Advantage of Strong World Coal Market
April coal exports continue to be the lone bright star for domestic coal producers as domestic coal demand fails to rebound from already dire 2017 levels. Strong world coal markets, with CIF ARA thermal coal and Australian low-vol HCC metallurgical coal continuing to trade at high levels, enabled U.S. coal exporters to record the highest […]
EVA Forecasts Record Natural Gas Demand for Summer 2018
On May 31, 2018, Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released a report on 2018’s Summer Outlook for Natural Gas. The report was prepared by Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA). Record natural gas demand in the summer of 2018 is expected to be accompanied by a record summer-over-summer production growth, the highest production increase since 2005. Storage […]
Despite Short Month, U.S. Coal Exports Remain Strong as U.S. Coal Exporters Work Through Backlog
Despite it being the shortest month of the year, U.S. coal exporters were able to add to the already high levels of U.S. coal exports, shipping out 9.7 million tons of coal in February 2018, extending the +9 million tons of exports streak now to seven consecutive months. Increases in met coal exports were the […]
2018 Outlook for Gas Pipeline Capacity in the Northeast
Since the beginning of the shale era, the North American natural gas industry has been keenly focused on the outlook for key pipeline takeaway projects in the Northeast. Recently, several major pipeline projects—most notably, Rover Phase 1 and Leach/Rayne Xpress—have been placed into service and have allowed Northeast gas production to reach record highs. Even […]
EVA Report: Navajo Generating Station Remains Low-Cost Power Solution for the Central Arizona Water Conservation District Through 2030
The Central Arizona Water Conservation District (CAWCD) will realize a $370 million savings in power costs through 2030 and municipal and industrial customers will avoid a 30 percent increase in water charges over 10 years if the CAWCD continues purchasing power from the Navajo Generating Station (NGS) rather than the open market, a study released […]
Different Shades of Cold: The 2018 Arctic Outbreak vs. the 2014 Polar Vortex
Following a mild start to this winter, cold weather finally arrived in late-December, with a record-breaking freeze sweeping down from Canada and spreading across nearly the entire U.S. east of the Rockies. The blast of cold has had an immediate impact on the market, causing production freeze-offs, surging heating demand and spiking gas and power […]
Rover Phase 1B Seeks Final FERC Approval
On the morning of Dec 4, Energy Transfer Partners submitted a request to FERC to bring Phase 1B of its Rover Pipeline in service by December 14, 2017. Although horizontal directional drilling (HDD) work was halted earlier this year, Phase 1B progress is actually slightly ahead of schedule according to our gas pipeline tracker. Phase […]
SoCal Gas & Power Prices Rising Sharply Heading into December
December gas prices for SoCal Citygate increased dramatically over the last six weeks. On Monday, the December contract settled at $6.21/MMBTU, its highest settle in four years and more than $2/MMBTU higher than its average through 2017. The prospect of higher gas prices has also pushed SP-15 December power prices to record highs. As noted […]
Forget the rig count — efficiency reigns supreme in the Marcellus
Dry gas production in the Marcellus and Utica, which now comprises about 35% of total U.S. L-48 dry gas production, has steadily increased through 2017. The consistent increase in output has coincided with rising rig counts, as well, but total rigs remain well below 2014 peaks. This is a clear sign that producers in the […]
Lone Star Solar: Amid plummeting costs, solar is set to soar in Texas
Texas has long stood alone as the clear leader in wind development in the United States. As of August 2017, the state has 21.1 GW of wind capacity, which represents a full 25% of total U.S. capacity and is more than 3 times the capacity in Iowa, the country’s second leading wind state. Notably, Texas […]
New natural gas pipeline capacity may outpace production gains over next several months
Over 16.4 BCFD of new natural gas pipeline capacity is expected to come into service between now and October 2018. A large chunk of this capacity (7.2 BCFD) aims to provide incremental production takeaway capacity, primarily in the Marcellus/Utica region (see map below). However, EVA’s most recent natural gas production forecast suggests these pipelines may […]
Clean Power Plan Repeal Finally Picks Up Steam
On October 10, 2017, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) added another chapter to the story of one of the most contentious environmental regulations, when EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt issued the proposed Clean Power Plan Repeal Rule. This action, almost 200 days after President Trump ordered the EPA in his Executive Order to Promote Energy […]
Rob DiDona’s EIA Presentation on Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition featured on THE COAL HUB
The report “Coal vs. Natural Gas Competition: The current state of play – impact on system dispatch,” first presented by Rob DiDona, leader of EVA’s power group, at the 2017 EIA Energy Conference, recently has been featured on THE COAL HUB. The report highlights the recent history of declining natural gas prices, the importance of […]
Metallurgical Coal Production drops in Third Quarter, Despite Strong Market Conditions
Quarterly coal production data from the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) show a significant drop in metallurgical coal production for the third quarter in 2017. While year-to-date metallurgical coal production is still well above 2016 levels (+26.7% through Q3), quarter-on-quarter production data shows a 9.5% decline, despite strong export market conditions for U.S. met […]
Unprecedented Outage Cuts Gas Flows on TETCO Southbound
Around 11pm on Oct 11, Texas Eastern Transmission (TETCO) declared a force majeure on an unplanned outage that occurred on the gas pipeline just south of its Berne Compressor Station in eastern Ohio. As of mid-morning on Oct 12, TETCO has not yet provided an estimate for when service will be restored. As a result of […]
EVA Releases Most Recent Quarterly LNG Outlook
EVA is pleased to release the most recent issue of its Quarterly LNG Outlook, which provides a deep but concise dive into the global LNG industry. Special focus is given to the ongoing development of U.S. LNG export projects, but global issues—including crucial shifts in pricing dynamics—are explored in-depth, as well. The report includes short-term (3-year), country-by-country supply […]
Pumping the PURPA Brakes: North Carolina opts for a more competitive solar development process
Renewable energy development in the Southeast U.S. has been largely non-existent, with the notable exception of North Carolina. Even there, wind development has been scarce, but the state has emerged as the nation’s second largest state for utility scale solar, behind only California. Having added 828 MW in 2015 and 758 MW in 2016, North […]
Sabine Pass LNG fills the tanks while waiting for Harvey to pass
Despite devastating much of Texas’ Gulf Coast, Hurricane Harvey has by all accounts spared Sabine Pass LNG, located on the Texas-Louisiana border. Owner and operator Cheniere has said operations were largely unaffected by the storm and corresponding deluge. Yet, no LNG cargoes have been loaded at the facility since Thursday 8/24 (just before the storm […]
Iranian Oil: Not Quite Open for Business
With the UN sanctions relief, Iran is seeking to revitalize its oil industry and already has raised oil production to near pre-sanction levels. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) aims to increase production capacity through 2021 to 4.8 MMBD by appealing to global oil majors for capital investments and renovations to their drilling and production […]
Retail NEM: Still controversial, but a consensus begins to emerge on this key driver of rooftop solar installations
Rooftop PV installations have soared in the U.S. over the past several years, but activity has been heavily concentrated in just a few states offering strong policy support. Retail net energy metering (NEM), which allows the homeowner to sell surplus solar power back to the grid at retail rates, has been a particularly critical driver […]
OPEC Fails to Reduce Global Oil Production Putting Downward Pressure on Oil Prices
While global oil production data for June is still preliminary, it indicates that global oil production is now above Oct. 2016 levels, despite OPEC’s plan to reduce supply. As illustrated in Exhibit 1, despite OPEC’s Big 4 reducing production levels 1.45 MBD, production increases for OPEC’s two wild cards and Non-OPEC’s Big 4, which is […]
New Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook Projects 2017 Coal Generation to Actualize Lower than Expected
EVA has published its July Coal & Gas Price Sensitivity Outlook. The report provides insight into how Coal-to-Gas (C2G) competition may evolve given pending changes to fuel pricing and the fundamental structure of the electric power markets. EVA’s Scenario Analysis (SCAN) of modeled assumptions provides high-level insight into a broad range of market-driven outcomes. Highlights […]
EVA Publishes Q2 Renewable Energy Outlook
EVA has published its most recent issue of the Quarterly Renewable Energy Outlook. The Quarterly Renewable Energy Outlook offers subscribers a succinct and compelling overview of current trends in renewable energy development in the U.S., delivered with clear and objective analysis. The Outlook provides short-term (3-year), state-by-state renewable energy capacity forecasts, broken out by technology type. It offers deep […]
EVA launches new offering: Quarterly LNG Outlook
EVA is pleased to announce the launch of a new product offering for our clients, the Quarterly LNG Outlook. EVA believes that to understand the future of North American gas markets, one must understand North American LNG. Yet in order to do so, it is necessary to keep tabs on global dynamics, as well. The Quarterly LNG Outlook is […]
Forbes ranks EVA among top Energy Consulting firms for 2017
In its annual ranking of management consulting companies, Forbes ranked EVA as one of the leading firms focused on Energy Consulting. The rankings are based on surveys of more than 1,000 partner level consultants and more than 1,000 business executives who have worked with the numerous firms included in the survey. EVA received 4 out […]
First Ozone Season Under the CSAPR Update Rule Begins Amid Uncertain Market Conditions
This month marks the official start of the 2017 ozone season. 22 eastern U.S. states will have to comply with much tighter emission budgets than over the last two ozone seasons. Emission budget reductions for CSAPR states, required by the EPA as part of the 2016 CSAPR Update Rule, have created very delicate market conditions […]
Structural changes over the past 12 months set to increase power burn by 0.75 – 1.00 BCFD over next year
The advent of low natural gas prices as a result of the shale revolution led to a major structural shift from coal to gas in the power markets. Based on EVA’s proprietary Power Plant Tracking Database, almost 47 GW of gas-fired capacity has been added till date starting 2012. Nearly 13 GW of new gas […]
New EPA under President Trump: Obama-Era Regulatory Rollbacks are in Full Swing
After last month’s issue of the long-awaited Executive Order (EO) on “Promoting Energy Independence” (see March Newsletter), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) headed by Administrator Scott Pruitt is in full force to undo some of the regulations supporting the “War on Coal.” As part of his EO issued last month, President Trump requested that the […]
Quick Trip: Despite increasing pipeline connections, Mexico emerges as the largest importer of U.S. LNG
As of late-April, Sabine Pass has exported more than 100 LNG cargoes to 17 different countries. Regionally, the shipments have been split almost equally between South American, Asian and Middle Eastern markets, fluctuating based on seasonal demand. Yet somewhat unexpectedly, the single largest importer of U.S. LNG is the country that would otherwise seem to […]
‘Tis the Season for Curtailment: Amid low seasonal demand, California tests the limits of renewable energy penetration
After suffering through several years of severe drought, California experienced record rainfall in late-2016 and early-2017, sufficient to fill previously depleted reservoirs. Simultaneously, the state brought on an additional 5.3 GW of solar capacity in 2016, bringing the total to 10.3 GW to go along with 5.7 GW of wind capacity. As a result, renewable […]
OPEC Cuts Production, but Change in Global Supply Muted
At the halfway point in OPEC’s six-month plan to reduce global supplies, the 11 participating OPEC members have reduced production 1.35 million barrels per day (MMBD) from Oct. levels. However, those production cuts have been partially offset by increases elsewhere in the world. This newsletter provides a granular assessment of these offsetting variances and addresses […]
Canadian Gas Imports: A Reversal in Trends
For the seven year period from 2008 to 2014 net Canadian exports to the U.S. were declining (i.e., 3.9 BCFD, or 43%). However, in 2015 and 2016 this trend was reversed. This newsletter examines both the underlying drivers behind this reversal in trends and the intermediate-term outlook for Canadian imports. Regional Assessment: Northeast Declines, While […]
RPS Compliance in PJM Markets: More flexibility than meets the eye
The PJM powerpool includes several states with sizeable Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS). The standards—in MD, NJ, OH, PA, IL, DE and DC—require an escalating portion of retail sales be met through qualified renewable energy (RE) generation. Load serving entities in the PJM region comply with their relevant RPS obligations via Renewable Energy Credits (RECs), which […]