On May 30, 2018, Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released their 2019 Summer Outlook for Natural Gas, which was prepared by Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA). According to EVA’s forecast, remarkable demand growth for the upcoming summer will be matched by record-setting production, resulting in flat price expectations summer-over-summer. Summer 2019 begins with a 1.13 TCF […]
Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook: ERCOT Spotlight
National Summary: Gas burn in February actualizing at a record 27.35 BCFD, nearly 0.6 BCFD higher than in January and 2.4 BCFD higher YoY. Coal burn was relatively flat YoY for February, while hydro generation declined by 13.5% from last year. Exhibit seven demonstrates that gas burn is expected to remain around 27 BCFD through […]
Gas and Coal Burn Sensitivity Outlook: MISO Spotlight
EVA’s latest monthly Gas and Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook indicates that annual 2019 coal burn will end up below 600 million tons while gas burn will surpass 2018 levels and end up at nearly 29 BCFD for the year. January gas burn was off to a good start with a 6.2% increase YoY, despite total […]
Commentary on the Gas Week 3/14 Storage Report
This morning EIA announced a 47 BCF withdrawal for gas week ending 3/14. This storage draw brings U.S. total working gas down to 1,143 BCF, with the deficit to the 5-year average narrowing from 569 BCF to 556 BCF. This is the first time we’ve saw below average withdrawal in a month. In this week’s […]
Gas and Coal Burn Sensitivity Outlook: PJM Spotlight
EVA’s monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook shows that December gas burn actualized at 23.9, bringing the annual 2018 gas burn to roughly 29 BCFD—a record high. Coal burn declined YoY, falling to around 637 million tons in 2018. Only four years ago coal burn was above 800 million tons, highlighting how retirements and […]
ERCOT Price Reforms to Curtail Retirements and Incentivize Distributed Generation Investment
Executive Summary In an effort to increase resilience ahead of summer 2019 the Texas Public Utility Commission has approved reforms that will increase prices during high-demand periods in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region. The reforms are expected to incentivize generators to defer retirement, while also sending price signals to customers to curtail […]
Massachusetts’ Comprehensive Energy Plan Aspires for an Electric Future
Background The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER) published its long-awaited energy plan on December 12th. DOER had been directed by Governor Charlie Baker in a September 2016 executive order to publish a “Comprehensive Energy Plan” (CEP) for the commonwealth. The CEP articulates the state’s high-level strategy to meet its commitment to reduce GHG emissions […]
2018 Coal Burn at 644 Million Tons, Gas Burn at ~29 BCFD
EVA’s Monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook forecasts that 2018 will end with Lower-48 coal burn at 644 million tons. 2017 annual power-sector coal burn was 666 million tons– 22 million tons more than in 2018. Going into September, coal burn was expected to fall by 25 million tons YoY. However, higher cash and […]
Gas Week 47 Record-Withdrawal Adds to Uncertainty in Natural Gas Market Heading into Winter Season
On November 21, EIA announced the first withdrawal for this winter season, a massive -134 BCF net withdrawal for gas week ending 11/15. This brought a massive drop in gas inventories, pushing gas stocks down to 3,113 BCF, 710 BCF lower than the 5-year average. This withdrawal was also much higher than market expectations, which […]
EVA’s 2017 Power Plant Performance Report Featured in Most Recent Power Engineering Magazine
EVA’s annual Power Plant Performance Report is featured in the June issue of PennWell’s Power Engineering magazine. The Power Plant Performance Report is based on data and analysis provided by EVA’s analysts. The data is collected from Form EIA 923 “Power Plant Report” and EPA’s Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS). It was another year of […]