EVA Projects Tightening U.S. Gas Market as Infrastructure Expands and Demand Grows
Vienna, VA — Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA), in partnership with the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA), has released its 2025 Summer Natural Gas Market Outlook, forecasting a tighter supply-demand balance driven by infrastructure expansions, growing LNG exports, and structural shifts in domestic energy use.
Key Highlights from the Report Include:
The U.S. natural gas market has tightened notably in 2025, with expanded takeaway capacity in the Permian and Marcellus regions supporting a projected 5 BCF/d increase in domestic production over Summer 2024. The launch of the Matterhorn and Mountain Valley pipelines has been instrumental in unlocking this new supply.
EVA expects end-of-summer 2025 working gas storage to reach approximately 3,700 BCF, near the five-year average and signaling a more balanced injection season than in 2024, when elevated inventories kept pressure on prices. While Henry Hub prices have risen modestly to around $3.50/MMBtu, they remain below levels needed to spur widespread drilling activity.
On the demand side, U.S. LNG exports are expected to grow significantly, driven by favorable netbacks to Europe and Asia and supported by new capacity at the Plaquemines and Golden Pass terminals. Feedgas demand reached record levels above 16 BCF/d in early 2025. Pipeline exports to Mexico are also climbing, backed by new infrastructure and more than 7 GW of upcoming gas-fired generation capacity south of the border.
Domestically, natural gas consumption remains resilient. While structural power sector demand has dipped slightly, increased coal-to-gas economic switching has helped keep total power burn steady. Industrial demand continues to build gradually, with 0.25 BCF/d of new growth since 2023 and further upside expected under pro-manufacturing policies.
At the same time, data center growth is rapidly reshaping U.S. electricity demand. Virginia and Texas remain at the forefront, with states like Ohio and Illinois also experiencing expansion in digital infrastructure. This surge is reinforcing the role of natural gas in ensuring grid reliability and meeting growing peak demand.
To access the executive summary of the report, please follow the link.
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About Energy Ventures Analysis: Energy Ventures Analysis (EVA) is a leading provider of consulting and analytical services for the energy industry. With decades of experience, EVA delivers in-depth market analysis, strategic insights, and expert advice to support decision-making in the energy sector.