EVA’s electric power market forecasting has been widely recognized as one of the best in the consulting industry.
EVA simulates the operations of electric power markets in the U.S. using the hourly dispatch model AURORAxmp, which is licensed from EPIS, Inc. EVA scrubs and fully re-populates the database with its own inputs.
On the supply side, EVA includes in its modeling unit-specific operating parameters, outage and fuel cost forecasts, and planned new builds and generator retirements that are tracked in a separate proprietary database. State-level renewable growth forecasts are also included. To determine the optimal future capacity profile, EVA inputs capital costs and operating characteristics for new resources based on a combination of anecdotal evidence, engineering data, and locational requirements.
On the demand side, electric load is forecasted by ISO zone for merchant markets and by utility/NERC sub-region for non-competitive markets based on drivers such as economic and industrial growth, weather, point loads, and expectations for energy efficiency, distributed generation, and electric vehicle penetration. All relevant environmental regulations are also simulated.
EVA uses these analyses to produce granular market projections for plant performance and economics, retirements and new builds, fuel consumption and prices, power and capacity prices, and transmission flows. These projections can be summarized on an annual, monthly, daily, or hourly basis. Additionally, results can be summarized nationally or by NERC/ISO region, state, utility, or fuel type. Each market driver can be sensitized in support of scenario analysis to help quantify market risk. Results can be used in support of utility integrated resource planning, asset valuation or viability, risk studies, reliability analyses, fuel procurement strategies, and regulatory proceedings among other things.
Typical electric power market forecasting deliverables include:
- Electricity demand, capacity, and generation by market and fuel type
- Coal and natural gas consumption and prices
- Retirements and new builds by market
- LMP prices by hub and zone
- Capacity prices by market region
Other available deliverables include:
- Heat rate and spark/dark spread analysis
- Market-specific supply curves
- Individual plant results
- Marginal fuel type analysis