Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook

ENERGY AREAS: POWER

Launched in February 2017, the monthly Gas & Coal Price Sensitivity Outlook is a one-stop shop to understand the impact of competition between natural gas and coal in U.S. power markets. The report is based on EVA’s proprietary Scenario Analysis (SCAN) of modeled assumptions which provides high-level insight into a wide array of market-driven outcomes. Using the AURORAxmp model for electric power dispatch, EVA performs a sensitivity analysis using a range of natural gas price forwards to analyze its impact on power sector natural gas and coal burn. The report encompasses the following:

  • Gas burn sensitivity analysis based on a range of NYMEX gas price forwards summarized by EIA gas storage regions and power markets for different time periods (prompt month, summer, winter etc.)
  • Coal burn sensitivity analysis based on a range of NYMEX gas price forwards summarized by coal supply regions for different time periods (prompt month, summer, winter etc.)
  • Monthly gas and coal burn forecast for the lower-48
  • Historical snapshot of power sector generation by fuel-type, gas burn, and coal burn
  • Storage facilitator for natural gas, which helps determine the natural gas price levels needed over the storage injection season to achieve a 4.0 TCF in the ground by EOS, given a set of supply and demand assumptions
  • Detailed analysis of the U.S. power markets to provide valuable insights into factors affecting coal and gas dispatch

The report has quickly become a favorite of commodity traders, utilities and co-ops alike, helping them understand the dynamics of the market and mitigate risks associated with gas price volatility.

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