Author: Michael Schaal

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Iranian Oil: Not Quite Open for Business

With the UN sanctions relief, Iran is seeking to revitalize its oil industry and already has raised oil production to near pre-sanction levels. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) aims to increase production capacity through 2021 to 4.8 MMBD by appealing to global oil majors for capital investments and renovations to their drilling and production […]

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OPEC Cuts Production, but Change in Global Supply Muted

At the halfway point in OPEC’s six-month plan to reduce global supplies, the 11 participating OPEC members have reduced production 1.35 million barrels per day (MMBD) from Oct. levels. However, those production cuts have been partially offset by increases elsewhere in the world. This newsletter provides a granular assess­ment of these offsetting variances and addresses […]

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Canadian Gas Imports: A Reversal in Trends

For the seven year period from 2008 to 2014 net Canadian exports to the U.S. were declining (i.e., 3.9 BCFD, or 43%). However, in 2015 and 2016 this trend was reversed. This newsletter examines both the underlying drivers behind this reversal in trends and the intermediate-term outlook for Canadian imports. Regional Assessment: Northeast Declines, While […]

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Natural Gas Markets Tighten Setting the Stage for a Price Surge

Arlington, Virginia – EVA has released its monthly forecast of the U.S. natural gas markets with related prices for March.  The exceptionally mild 2016/2017 winter masked a relatively narrow supply and demand balance. The correspondingly lower winter prices has restrained—to a degree—upstream investment priming the market for serious tightness heading into the summer. However, the […]

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Equal Demand Reaction? Sagging U.S. gasoline demand may thwart OPEC’s efforts to balance markets

The key premise of OPEC’s plan to balance oil markets was that reduced production, combined with increasing global oil demand, would erode excess supply. While the supply cuts have proceeded largely as planned, global oil demand remains an outstanding question. Most demand expectations for 2017 were already rather modest, ranging around 1.1 MMBD, or 1.1% […]

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Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast

Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast   Published December 29, 2016   Arlington, Virginia – December 29, 2016 – EVA Decodes OPEC’s Fuzzy Math and Finds Global Glut to Persist Through 2017.   In EVA’s recently released Monthly Short-Term Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Price Forecast the OPEC plan for balancing global […]